Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.662.79safe0.16–2.100.80–2.510.96–4.61safer0.00–2.350.57–2.740.48–5.09
Shots on target
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.755.058.80safe1.89–5.613.31–6.795.20–12.41safer1.40–6.102.84–7.264.24–13.36
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0013.2225.22safe8.08–15.939.65–16.7817.73–32.71safer6.99–17.028.69–17.7415.68–34.76
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.809.0316.83safe4.86–10.746.34–11.7111.20–22.45safer4.03–11.575.61–12.449.64–24.02
Blocked shots
27%
13%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.284.497.77safe1.40–5.162.83–6.144.23–11.30safer0.85–5.712.34–6.633.20–12.34
Corners
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.645.5810.22safe2.43–6.853.58–7.586.01–14.43safer1.85–7.433.05–8.114.90–15.54
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction40.7260.47safe33.93–47.5153.69–67.26safer32.26–49.1852.02–68.93
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction315478793safe247–382412–545659–927safer229–400394–562624–962
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction60.2774.38safe56.24–64.3070.06–78.70safer54.94–65.5968.75–80.01
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2710.4022.67safe9.44–15.117.45–13.3416.89–28.45safer8.68–15.876.70–14.0915.38–29.96
Offsides
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.605.73safe1.97–4.291.50–3.693.47–7.98safer1.67–4.591.21–3.982.88–8.57
Yellow cards
49%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.141.693.83safe1.09–3.190.56–2.821.65–6.01safer0.82–3.460.27–3.111.09–6.56
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.715.79safe1.64–4.511.15–4.272.80–8.78safer1.25–4.900.73–4.691.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.66 0.80–2.51 0.57–2.74 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.48–5.09 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.61 1.40–6.10 | 5.05 3.31–6.79 2.84–7.26 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.36 | 27% 61% |
| Total shots | 12.00 8.08–15.93 6.99–17.02 | 13.22 9.65–16.78 8.69–17.74 | 25.22 17.73–32.71 15.68–34.76 | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.80 4.86–10.74 4.03–11.57 | 9.03 6.34–11.71 5.61–12.44 | 16.83 11.20–22.45 9.64–24.02 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.28 1.40–5.16 0.85–5.71 | 4.49 2.83–6.14 2.34–6.63 | 7.77 4.23–11.30 3.20–12.34 | 27% 13% 60% |
| Corners | 4.64 2.43–6.85 1.85–7.43 | 5.58 3.58–7.58 3.05–8.11 | 10.22 6.01–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 33% 55% |
| Possession % | 40.72 33.93–47.51 32.26–49.18 | 60.47 53.69–67.26 52.02–68.93 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 315 247–382 229–400 | 478 412–545 394–562 | 793 659–927 624–962 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.27 56.24–64.30 54.94–65.59 | 74.38 70.06–78.70 68.75–80.01 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 12.27 9.44–15.11 8.68–15.87 | 10.40 7.45–13.34 6.70–14.09 | 22.67 16.89–28.45 15.38–29.96 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 3.13 1.97–4.29 1.67–4.59 | 2.60 1.50–3.69 1.21–3.98 | 5.73 3.47–7.98 2.88–8.57 | 50% 17% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.19 0.82–3.46 | 1.69 0.56–2.82 0.27–3.11 | 3.83 1.65–6.01 1.09–6.56 | 49% 21% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 2.71 1.15–4.27 0.73–4.69 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 48% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.