Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.352.71safe0.39–2.330.50–2.210.89–4.53safer0.14–2.580.27–2.430.41–5.01
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.058.62safe2.71–6.432.31–5.805.02–12.23safer2.22–6.921.85–6.264.06–13.19
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3310.9524.28safe9.41–17.267.39–14.5116.79–31.77safer8.32–18.356.43–15.4714.74–33.82
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.267.9316.19safe5.32–11.215.25–10.6110.57–21.82safer4.49–12.044.51–11.359.00–23.38
Blocked shots
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.572.486.04safe1.68–5.450.83–4.132.51–9.58safer1.14–5.990.33–4.621.47–10.62
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.8310.25safe3.20–7.632.83–6.836.03–14.46safer2.63–8.202.30–7.364.93–15.57
Possession %
40%
56%
homeawayprediction47.8351.19safe41.04–54.6244.40–57.97safer39.37–56.2942.73–59.64
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction426435861safe359–494368–501727–995safer341–512351–519692–1031
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction67.5772.20safe63.55–71.6067.88–76.52safer62.25–72.9066.57–77.83
Fouls
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3710.8824.25safe10.54–16.217.93–13.8218.47–30.03safer9.78–16.977.18–14.5716.96–31.54
Offsides
76%
homeawaytotalprediction1.593.705.30safe0.43–2.752.61–4.803.04–7.55safer0.13–3.052.32–5.092.45–8.14
Yellow cards
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.104.04safe0.89–2.990.97–3.231.86–6.22safer0.62–3.250.68–3.521.30–6.77
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.225.98safe1.33–4.201.66–4.772.99–8.97safer0.94–4.591.24–5.202.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.35 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.43 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.71–6.43 2.22–6.92 | 4.05 2.31–5.80 1.85–6.26 | 8.62 5.02–12.23 4.06–13.19 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.33 9.41–17.26 8.32–18.35 | 10.95 7.39–14.51 6.43–15.47 | 24.28 16.79–31.77 14.74–33.82 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.26 5.32–11.21 4.49–12.04 | 7.93 5.25–10.61 4.51–11.35 | 16.19 10.57–21.82 9.00–23.38 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.68–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 2.48 0.83–4.13 0.33–4.62 | 6.04 2.51–9.58 1.47–10.62 | 59% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.20–7.63 2.63–8.20 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.30–7.36 | 10.25 6.03–14.46 4.93–15.57 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.83 41.04–54.62 39.37–56.29 | 51.19 44.40–57.97 42.73–59.64 | — | 40% 56% |
| Passes | 426 359–494 341–512 | 435 368–501 351–519 | 861 727–995 692–1031 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.57 63.55–71.60 62.25–72.90 | 72.20 67.88–76.52 66.57–77.83 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 13.37 10.54–16.21 9.78–16.97 | 10.88 7.93–13.82 7.18–14.57 | 24.25 18.47–30.03 16.96–31.54 | 66% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 3.70 2.61–4.80 2.32–5.09 | 5.30 3.04–7.55 2.45–8.14 | 76% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.62–3.25 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.04 1.86–6.22 1.30–6.77 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.33–4.20 0.94–4.59 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.24–5.20 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.17–9.78 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.