Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.202.73safe0.55–2.490.35–2.060.90–4.55safer0.30–2.740.12–2.290.42–5.03
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.019.24safe3.37–7.092.27–5.765.64–12.85safer2.88–7.581.81–6.224.68–13.81
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8612.9528.81safe11.93–19.789.39–16.5221.32–36.30safer10.84–20.878.43–17.4819.27–38.35
Shots in box
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction9.678.7718.45safe6.73–12.626.09–11.4512.82–24.07safer5.90–13.455.35–12.1911.26–25.64
Blocked shots
57%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.573.548.11safe2.69–6.451.88–5.194.57–11.64safer2.15–7.001.39–5.683.54–12.68
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.944.7510.69safe3.72–8.152.75–6.756.48–14.90safer3.15–8.722.22–7.295.37–16.01
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.8741.92safe51.08–64.6635.13–48.70safer49.41–66.3333.46–50.38
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction472324796safe405–539257–390662–930safer387–558240–408627–965
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction67.9866.11safe63.95–72.0161.79–70.44safer62.66–73.3060.48–71.75
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3012.5223.82safe8.46–14.149.58–15.4718.04–29.60safer7.71–14.898.83–16.2216.54–31.11
Offsides
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.103.66safe0.40–2.731.01–3.191.41–5.92safer0.10–3.030.72–3.480.82–6.51
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.003.82safe0.77–2.870.88–3.131.65–6.00safer0.50–3.130.58–3.431.09–6.56
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.405.99safe1.16–4.031.84–4.953.00–8.99safer0.77–4.421.42–5.382.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.23 3.37–7.09 2.88–7.58 | 4.01 2.27–5.76 1.81–6.22 | 9.24 5.64–12.85 4.68–13.81 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.86 11.93–19.78 10.84–20.87 | 12.95 9.39–16.52 8.43–17.48 | 28.81 21.32–36.30 19.27–38.35 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.67 6.73–12.62 5.90–13.45 | 8.77 6.09–11.45 5.35–12.19 | 18.45 12.82–24.07 11.26–25.64 | 54% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 2.69–6.45 2.15–7.00 | 3.54 1.88–5.19 1.39–5.68 | 8.11 4.57–11.64 3.54–12.68 | 57% 13% 29% |
| Corners | 5.94 3.72–8.15 3.15–8.72 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.22–7.29 | 10.69 6.48–14.90 5.37–16.01 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 57.87 51.08–64.66 49.41–66.33 | 41.92 35.13–48.70 33.46–50.38 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 472 405–539 387–558 | 324 257–390 240–408 | 796 662–930 627–965 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.98 63.95–72.01 62.66–73.30 | 66.11 61.79–70.44 60.48–71.75 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 11.30 8.46–14.14 7.71–14.89 | 12.52 9.58–15.47 8.83–16.22 | 23.82 18.04–29.60 16.54–31.11 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.40–2.73 0.10–3.03 | 2.10 1.01–3.19 0.72–3.48 | 3.66 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.50–3.13 | 2.00 0.88–3.13 0.58–3.43 | 3.82 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 3.40 1.84–4.95 1.42–5.38 | 5.99 3.00–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+