Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.143.18safe1.07–3.010.29–2.001.36–5.00safer0.82–3.260.06–2.220.88–5.48
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.493.629.10safe3.62–7.351.88–5.365.50–12.71safer3.13–7.841.41–5.834.54–13.66
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1510.5625.71safe11.22–19.077.00–14.1218.22–33.19safer10.13–20.166.04–15.0816.17–35.24
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.206.8117.01safe7.26–13.144.13–9.4911.38–22.63safer6.43–13.973.39–10.239.82–24.20
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.957.00safe2.17–5.931.30–4.603.46–10.54safer1.63–6.480.80–5.092.43–11.57
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.243.649.88safe4.02–8.451.64–5.645.67–14.09safer3.45–9.021.11–6.184.56–15.20
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.9239.60safe54.13–67.7132.81–46.38safer52.46–69.3831.14–48.05
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction607365973safe540–674299–432839–1106safer522–693282–449803–1142
Pass accuracy %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction74.9968.79safe70.96–79.0264.46–73.11safer69.66–80.3163.15–74.42
Fouls
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1111.7421.85safe7.28–12.958.79–14.6816.07–27.63safer6.52–13.718.05–15.4314.56–29.14
Offsides
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.555.88safe2.16–4.481.46–3.653.62–8.13safer1.86–4.781.17–3.933.03–8.72
Yellow cards
27%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.803.06safe0.21–2.310.67–2.920.88–5.24safer0.00–2.580.38–3.220.32–5.79
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.435.90safe1.03–3.901.88–4.992.91–8.89safer0.64–4.291.45–5.412.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.07–3.01 0.82–3.26 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.22 | 3.18 1.36–5.00 0.88–5.48 | 58% 21% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.49 3.62–7.35 3.13–7.84 | 3.62 1.88–5.36 1.41–5.83 | 9.10 5.50–12.71 4.54–13.66 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.15 11.22–19.07 10.13–20.16 | 10.56 7.00–14.12 6.04–15.08 | 25.71 18.22–33.19 16.17–35.24 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.20 7.26–13.14 6.43–13.97 | 6.81 4.13–9.49 3.39–10.23 | 17.01 11.38–22.63 9.82–24.20 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.63–6.48 | 2.95 1.30–4.60 0.80–5.09 | 7.00 3.46–10.54 2.43–11.57 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 6.24 4.02–8.45 3.45–9.02 | 3.64 1.64–5.64 1.11–6.18 | 9.88 5.67–14.09 4.56–15.20 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 60.92 54.13–67.71 52.46–69.38 | 39.60 32.81–46.38 31.14–48.05 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 607 540–674 522–693 | 365 299–432 282–449 | 973 839–1106 803–1142 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.99 70.96–79.02 69.66–80.31 | 68.79 64.46–73.11 63.15–74.42 | — | 77% 19% |
| Fouls | 10.11 7.28–12.95 6.52–13.71 | 11.74 8.79–14.68 8.05–15.43 | 21.85 16.07–27.63 14.56–29.14 | 32% 59% |
| Offsides | 3.32 2.16–4.48 1.86–4.78 | 2.55 1.46–3.65 1.17–3.93 | 5.88 3.62–8.13 3.03–8.72 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.26 0.21–2.31 0.00–2.58 | 1.80 0.67–2.92 0.38–3.22 | 3.06 0.88–5.24 0.32–5.79 | 27% 23% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.03–3.90 0.64–4.29 | 3.43 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.41 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.