Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.062.45safe0.42–2.360.21–1.920.63–4.27safer0.17–2.610.00–2.150.15–4.75
Shots on target
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.433.557.98safe2.56–6.291.81–5.294.37–11.58safer2.07–6.781.34–5.763.42–12.54
Total shots
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2511.0924.34safe9.33–17.187.52–14.6516.85–31.83safer8.24–18.276.56–15.6114.80–33.88
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.557.4616.01safe5.61–11.494.78–10.1410.39–21.64safer4.78–12.324.04–10.888.82–23.20
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.823.136.95safe1.94–5.701.48–4.783.42–10.49safer1.40–6.250.99–5.282.38–11.53
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.4810.19safe3.49–7.912.48–6.485.97–14.40safer2.91–8.491.95–7.024.86–15.51
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction56.4145.12safe49.62–63.2038.34–51.91safer47.95–64.8736.67–53.58
Passes
82%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction491379871safe424–559313–446737–1004safer406–577295–463701–1040
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction73.3370.65safe69.30–77.3666.32–74.97safer68.01–78.6565.02–76.28
Fouls
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2713.6323.90safe7.43–13.1110.68–16.5718.11–29.68safer6.67–13.869.93–17.3216.61–31.18
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.553.54safe0.83–3.160.45–2.641.29–5.80safer0.53–3.460.17–2.930.70–6.39
Yellow cards
28%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.364.05safe0.64–2.741.23–3.491.87–6.23safer0.38–3.010.94–3.781.31–6.78
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.105.58safe1.04–3.911.54–4.662.58–8.57safer0.65–4.301.12–5.081.77–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.45 0.63–4.27 0.15–4.75 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.43 2.56–6.29 2.07–6.78 | 3.55 1.81–5.29 1.34–5.76 | 7.98 4.37–11.58 3.42–12.54 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.25 9.33–17.18 8.24–18.27 | 11.09 7.52–14.65 6.56–15.61 | 24.34 16.85–31.83 14.80–33.88 | 63% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 5.61–11.49 4.78–12.32 | 7.46 4.78–10.14 4.04–10.88 | 16.01 10.39–21.64 8.82–23.20 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.94–5.70 1.40–6.25 | 3.13 1.48–4.78 0.99–5.28 | 6.95 3.42–10.49 2.38–11.53 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.49–7.91 2.91–8.49 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.02 | 10.19 5.97–14.40 4.86–15.51 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 56.41 49.62–63.20 47.95–64.87 | 45.12 38.34–51.91 36.67–53.58 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 491 424–559 406–577 | 379 313–446 295–463 | 871 737–1004 701–1040 | 82% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.33 69.30–77.36 68.01–78.65 | 70.65 66.32–74.97 65.02–76.28 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 10.27 7.43–13.11 6.67–13.86 | 13.63 10.68–16.57 9.93–17.32 | 23.90 18.11–29.68 16.61–31.18 | 21% 72% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.83–3.16 0.53–3.46 | 1.55 0.45–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 3.54 1.29–5.80 0.70–6.39 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 2.36 1.23–3.49 0.94–3.78 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.31–6.78 | 28% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.04–3.91 0.65–4.30 | 3.10 1.54–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 5.58 2.58–8.57 1.77–9.38 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+