Championship·Regular Season - 22·
Championship·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.452.95safe0.54–2.470.59–2.301.13–4.77safer0.28–2.720.36–2.530.65–5.25
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.339.14safe2.95–6.682.59–6.075.54–12.75safer2.46–7.172.12–6.544.58–13.71
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1711.9427.11safe11.25–19.108.37–15.5019.62–34.60safer10.16–20.197.41–16.4617.57–36.65
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction10.098.5018.59safe7.14–13.035.82–11.1812.96–24.21safer6.32–13.865.08–11.9211.40–25.78
Blocked shots
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.573.438.00safe2.69–6.451.77–5.084.46–11.53safer2.15–7.001.28–5.573.43–12.57
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.874.4910.36safe3.65–8.082.49–6.496.14–14.57safer3.08–8.661.96–7.025.04–15.68
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.0252.33safe40.23–53.8145.55–59.12safer38.56–55.4843.88–60.79
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction378430808safe311–445364–497675–942safer293–463346–514639–978
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction66.4770.97safe62.44–70.5066.64–75.29safer61.15–71.8065.33–76.60
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1611.4922.64safe8.32–13.998.54–14.4316.86–28.42safer7.56–14.757.79–15.1815.35–29.93
Offsides
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.334.02safe0.53–2.851.24–3.421.77–6.28safer0.23–3.150.95–3.711.18–6.87
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.003.68safe0.63–2.730.87–3.131.50–5.86safer0.36–2.990.58–3.420.94–6.41
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.365.97safe1.17–4.041.81–4.922.98–8.96safer0.78–4.431.38–5.352.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.45 0.59–2.30 0.36–2.53 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.65–5.25 | 39% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.81 2.95–6.68 2.46–7.17 | 4.33 2.59–6.07 2.12–6.54 | 9.14 5.54–12.75 4.58–13.71 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 15.17 11.25–19.10 10.16–20.19 | 11.94 8.37–15.50 7.41–16.46 | 27.11 19.62–34.60 17.57–36.65 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 10.09 7.14–13.03 6.32–13.86 | 8.50 5.82–11.18 5.08–11.92 | 18.59 12.96–24.21 11.40–25.78 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 2.69–6.45 2.15–7.00 | 3.43 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 8.00 4.46–11.53 3.43–12.57 | 59% 13% 28% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.66 | 4.49 2.49–6.49 1.96–7.02 | 10.36 6.14–14.57 5.04–15.68 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 47.02 40.23–53.81 38.56–55.48 | 52.33 45.55–59.12 43.88–60.79 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 378 311–445 293–463 | 430 364–497 346–514 | 808 675–942 639–978 | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.47 62.44–70.50 61.15–71.80 | 70.97 66.64–75.29 65.33–76.60 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.16 8.32–13.99 7.56–14.75 | 11.49 8.54–14.43 7.79–15.18 | 22.64 16.86–28.42 15.35–29.93 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 2.33 1.24–3.42 0.95–3.71 | 4.02 1.77–6.28 1.18–6.87 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.36–2.99 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.94–6.41 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.36 1.81–4.92 1.38–5.35 | 5.97 2.98–8.96 2.16–9.77 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+