Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.222.53safe0.34–2.280.36–2.070.71–4.35safer0.09–2.530.13–2.300.23–4.83
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.283.717.99safe2.42–6.141.97–5.454.38–11.59safer1.93–6.631.50–5.923.43–12.55
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5910.8624.45safe9.66–17.517.30–14.4316.97–31.94safer8.57–18.616.34–15.3914.92–33.99
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.397.2915.69safe5.45–11.344.61–9.9710.06–21.31safer4.62–12.173.87–10.718.50–22.88
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.906.95safe2.17–5.931.25–4.563.42–10.49safer1.63–6.480.76–5.052.38–11.52
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.7410.14safe3.19–7.612.74–6.745.93–14.35safer2.61–8.192.21–7.274.82–15.46
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.3651.30safe42.57–56.1544.52–58.09safer40.90–57.8242.85–59.76
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction377392769safe310–444325–458635–903safer292–463308–476600–938
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction65.3268.00safe61.29–69.3563.67–72.32safer60.00–70.6462.36–73.63
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7412.3123.05safe7.90–13.579.37–15.2617.27–28.83safer7.14–14.338.62–16.0115.76–30.34
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.634.23safe0.43–2.751.54–3.731.97–6.48safer0.13–3.051.25–4.011.38–7.07
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.843.55safe0.67–2.770.71–2.971.38–5.73safer0.40–3.030.42–3.260.82–6.29
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
32%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.935.34safe0.97–3.841.38–4.492.34–8.33safer0.58–4.230.95–4.921.53–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.14 1.93–6.63 | 3.71 1.97–5.45 1.50–5.92 | 7.99 4.38–11.59 3.43–12.55 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.59 9.66–17.51 8.57–18.61 | 10.86 7.30–14.43 6.34–15.39 | 24.45 16.97–31.94 14.92–33.99 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 8.39 5.45–11.34 4.62–12.17 | 7.29 4.61–9.97 3.87–10.71 | 15.69 10.06–21.31 8.50–22.88 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.63–6.48 | 2.90 1.25–4.56 0.76–5.05 | 6.95 3.42–10.49 2.38–11.52 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.19–7.61 2.61–8.19 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.21–7.27 | 10.14 5.93–14.35 4.82–15.46 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.36 42.57–56.15 40.90–57.82 | 51.30 44.52–58.09 42.85–59.76 | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 377 310–444 292–463 | 392 325–458 308–476 | 769 635–903 600–938 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.32 61.29–69.35 60.00–70.64 | 68.00 63.67–72.32 62.36–73.63 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 10.74 7.90–13.57 7.14–14.33 | 12.31 9.37–15.26 8.62–16.01 | 23.05 17.27–28.83 15.76–30.34 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 2.63 1.54–3.73 1.25–4.01 | 4.23 1.97–6.48 1.38–7.07 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.55 1.38–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.97–3.84 0.58–4.23 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 5.34 2.34–8.33 1.53–9.14 | 32% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.