Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.472.64safe0.20–2.140.62–2.330.82–4.46safer0.00–2.390.39–2.550.34–4.94
Shots on target
31%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.764.738.48safe1.90–5.622.98–6.474.88–12.09safer1.41–6.112.52–6.933.92–13.04
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1412.9625.10safe8.22–16.079.39–16.5217.61–32.58safer7.12–17.168.43–17.4815.56–34.64
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction8.459.1917.64safe5.51–11.406.51–11.8712.02–23.26safer4.68–12.235.77–12.6010.45–24.83
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.084.247.31safe1.20–4.962.58–5.893.78–10.85safer0.65–5.502.09–6.382.74–11.89
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.895.4010.29safe2.68–7.103.40–7.406.08–14.50safer2.10–7.682.87–7.944.97–15.61
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.6557.57safe36.86–50.4450.78–64.35safer35.19–52.1149.11–66.02
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction344452796safe277–411386–519663–930safer259–429368–536627–966
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction60.0670.14safe56.03–64.0965.81–74.46safer54.73–65.3864.50–75.77
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4912.0625.54safe10.65–16.339.11–15.0019.76–31.33safer9.90–17.088.36–15.7518.26–32.83
Offsides
55%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.451.684.13safe1.29–3.610.59–2.771.87–6.38safer0.98–3.910.30–3.061.28–6.97
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.953.79safe0.79–2.890.82–3.081.61–5.97safer0.52–3.160.53–3.371.05–6.53
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
50%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.635.77safe1.70–4.571.08–4.192.77–8.76safer1.31–4.960.65–4.611.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.55 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.76 1.90–5.62 1.41–6.11 | 4.73 2.98–6.47 2.52–6.93 | 8.48 4.88–12.09 3.92–13.04 | 31% 13% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.14 8.22–16.07 7.12–17.16 | 12.96 9.39–16.52 8.43–17.48 | 25.10 17.61–32.58 15.56–34.64 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.45 5.51–11.40 4.68–12.23 | 9.19 6.51–11.87 5.77–12.60 | 17.64 12.02–23.26 10.45–24.83 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.20–4.96 0.65–5.50 | 4.24 2.58–5.89 2.09–6.38 | 7.31 3.78–10.85 2.74–11.89 | 27% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.10 2.10–7.68 | 5.40 3.40–7.40 2.87–7.94 | 10.29 6.08–14.50 4.97–15.61 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 43.65 36.86–50.44 35.19–52.11 | 57.57 50.78–64.35 49.11–66.02 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 344 277–411 259–429 | 452 386–519 368–536 | 796 663–930 627–966 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.06 56.03–64.09 54.73–65.38 | 70.14 65.81–74.46 64.50–75.77 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 13.49 10.65–16.33 9.90–17.08 | 12.06 9.11–15.00 8.36–15.75 | 25.54 19.76–31.33 18.26–32.83 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.45 1.29–3.61 0.98–3.91 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 4.13 1.87–6.38 1.28–6.97 | 55% 19% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.52–3.16 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.05–6.53 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 2.63 1.08–4.19 0.65–4.61 | 5.77 2.77–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 50% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.