Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.072.61safe0.56–2.500.22–1.930.78–4.43safer0.31–2.750.00–2.160.30–4.91
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.668.46safe2.94–6.671.92–5.404.86–12.07safer2.45–7.161.45–5.873.90–13.03
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3711.4824.84safe9.44–17.297.92–15.0417.36–32.33safer8.35–18.386.96–16.0015.31–34.38
Shots in box
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.637.0717.70safe7.69–13.574.39–9.7512.08–23.33safer6.86–14.403.66–10.4910.51–24.89
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.216.78safe1.69–5.451.56–4.863.24–10.31safer1.14–5.991.07–5.362.21–11.35
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.734.259.98safe3.51–7.942.25–6.255.76–14.19safer2.94–8.511.72–6.784.66–15.30
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction53.1347.72safe46.34–59.9240.94–54.51safer44.67–61.5939.26–56.18
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction484424907safe417–551357–490774–1041safer398–569340–508738–1077
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction67.5170.26safe63.48–71.5465.94–74.59safer62.19–72.8364.63–75.89
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9710.9921.95safe8.13–13.808.04–13.9316.17–27.73safer7.37–14.567.29–14.6814.67–29.24
Offsides
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.581.515.09safe2.42–4.740.42–2.602.84–7.35safer2.12–5.040.13–2.892.25–7.94
Yellow cards
27%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.722.91safe0.15–2.240.59–2.850.74–5.09safer0.00–2.510.30–3.140.18–5.65
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.366.08safe1.28–4.151.80–4.923.09–9.07safer0.89–4.541.38–5.342.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.07 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.61 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.91 | 48% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.94–6.67 2.45–7.16 | 3.66 1.92–5.40 1.45–5.87 | 8.46 4.86–12.07 3.90–13.03 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 13.37 9.44–17.29 8.35–18.38 | 11.48 7.92–15.04 6.96–16.00 | 24.84 17.36–32.33 15.31–34.38 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 10.63 7.69–13.57 6.86–14.40 | 7.07 4.39–9.75 3.66–10.49 | 17.70 12.08–23.33 10.51–24.89 | 77% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.69–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 3.21 1.56–4.86 1.07–5.36 | 6.78 3.24–10.31 2.21–11.35 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.73 3.51–7.94 2.94–8.51 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.72–6.78 | 9.98 5.76–14.19 4.66–15.30 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 53.13 46.34–59.92 44.67–61.59 | 47.72 40.94–54.51 39.26–56.18 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 484 417–551 398–569 | 424 357–490 340–508 | 907 774–1041 738–1077 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.51 63.48–71.54 62.19–72.83 | 70.26 65.94–74.59 64.63–75.89 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.13–13.80 7.37–14.56 | 10.99 8.04–13.93 7.29–14.68 | 21.95 16.17–27.73 14.67–29.24 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 3.58 2.42–4.74 2.12–5.04 | 1.51 0.42–2.60 0.13–2.89 | 5.09 2.84–7.35 2.25–7.94 | 76% |
| Yellow cards | 1.19 0.15–2.24 0.00–2.51 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 2.91 0.74–5.09 0.18–5.65 | 27% 24% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 3.36 1.80–4.92 1.38–5.34 | 6.08 3.09–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.