Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.362.59safe0.26–2.200.51–2.220.77–4.42safer0.01–2.450.28–2.450.29–4.90
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.164.168.32safe2.30–6.022.42–5.914.72–11.93safer1.81–6.511.96–6.373.76–12.88
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1912.5424.73safe8.27–16.128.97–16.1017.24–32.22safer7.18–17.218.01–17.0615.19–34.27
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.178.7216.89safe5.23–11.116.04–11.4011.27–22.51safer4.40–11.945.30–12.149.70–24.08
Blocked shots
40%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.483.627.09safe1.59–5.361.96–5.273.56–10.63safer1.05–5.901.47–5.762.52–11.66
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.939.95safe2.81–7.242.93–6.935.74–14.17safer2.24–7.812.39–7.464.63–15.27
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.4154.85safe39.62–53.2048.06–61.63safer37.95–54.8746.39–63.30
Passes
28%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction439507947safe372–506441–574813–1080safer354–525423–591777–1116
Pass accuracy %
15%
81%
homeawayprediction68.3875.80safe64.35–72.4171.48–80.12safer63.06–73.7070.17–81.43
Fouls
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction12.509.9022.39safe9.66–15.336.95–12.8416.61–28.17safer8.90–16.096.20–13.5915.10–29.68
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.314.15safe0.68–3.001.22–3.411.90–6.40safer0.37–3.300.93–3.691.31–6.99
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.783.63safe0.81–2.910.65–2.911.46–5.81safer0.54–3.170.36–3.200.90–6.37
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.19safe0.00–0.280.00–0.260.00–0.53safer0.00–0.430.00–0.390.00–0.82
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.815.74safe1.50–4.371.25–4.362.75–8.73safer1.11–4.760.82–4.791.94–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.36 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.45 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.16 2.30–6.02 1.81–6.51 | 4.16 2.42–5.91 1.96–6.37 | 8.32 4.72–11.93 3.76–12.88 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 12.19 8.27–16.12 7.18–17.21 | 12.54 8.97–16.10 8.01–17.06 | 24.73 17.24–32.22 15.19–34.27 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.23–11.11 4.40–11.94 | 8.72 6.04–11.40 5.30–12.14 | 16.89 11.27–22.51 9.70–24.08 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.59–5.36 1.05–5.90 | 3.62 1.96–5.27 1.47–5.76 | 7.09 3.56–10.63 2.52–11.66 | 40% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.81–7.24 2.24–7.81 | 4.93 2.93–6.93 2.39–7.46 | 9.95 5.74–14.17 4.63–15.27 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 46.41 39.62–53.20 37.95–54.87 | 54.85 48.06–61.63 46.39–63.30 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 439 372–506 354–525 | 507 441–574 423–591 | 947 813–1080 777–1116 | 28% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.38 64.35–72.41 63.06–73.70 | 75.80 71.48–80.12 70.17–81.43 | — | 15% 81% |
| Fouls | 12.50 9.66–15.33 8.90–16.09 | 9.90 6.95–12.84 6.20–13.59 | 22.39 16.61–28.17 15.10–29.68 | 67% 26% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.37–3.30 | 2.31 1.22–3.41 0.93–3.69 | 4.15 1.90–6.40 1.31–6.99 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.91 0.54–3.17 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.63 1.46–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 2.81 1.25–4.36 0.82–4.79 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.94–9.54 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.