Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.162.63safe0.50–2.430.31–2.020.81–4.45safer0.24–2.680.08–2.250.33–4.93
Shots on target
49%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.168.73safe2.71–6.432.42–5.905.12–12.33safer2.22–6.921.95–6.374.17–13.29
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3311.7825.11safe9.40–17.258.22–15.3417.62–32.60safer8.31–18.347.26–16.3015.57–34.65
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.027.5417.57safe7.08–12.974.86–10.2211.94–23.19safer6.25–13.804.13–10.9610.38–24.76
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.677.17safe1.62–5.382.01–5.323.63–10.70safer1.07–5.931.52–5.812.60–11.74
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.539.88safe3.14–7.572.53–6.535.67–14.10safer2.57–8.142.00–7.064.56–15.20
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.8153.04safe41.02–54.6046.26–59.83safer39.35–56.2744.58–61.50
Passes
38%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction466502968safe399–533435–568834–1101safer381–552418–586798–1137
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction67.8775.34safe63.85–71.9071.02–79.67safer62.55–73.2069.71–80.98
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3610.8823.24safe9.53–15.207.94–13.8317.46–29.03safer8.77–15.967.19–14.5715.96–30.53
Offsides
61%
18%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.721.624.33safe1.56–3.880.52–2.712.08–6.59safer1.26–4.180.24–3.001.49–7.18
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.863.38safe0.47–2.570.73–2.991.20–5.56safer0.21–2.840.44–3.280.64–6.12
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.772.975.74safe1.34–4.211.41–4.522.75–8.73safer0.95–4.600.99–4.951.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.16 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.71–6.43 2.22–6.92 | 4.16 2.42–5.90 1.95–6.37 | 8.73 5.12–12.33 4.17–13.29 | 49% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.33 9.40–17.25 8.31–18.34 | 11.78 8.22–15.34 7.26–16.30 | 25.11 17.62–32.60 15.57–34.65 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 10.02 7.08–12.97 6.25–13.80 | 7.54 4.86–10.22 4.13–10.96 | 17.57 11.94–23.19 10.38–24.76 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.62–5.38 1.07–5.93 | 3.67 2.01–5.32 1.52–5.81 | 7.17 3.63–10.70 2.60–11.74 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.14–7.57 2.57–8.14 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 2.00–7.06 | 9.88 5.67–14.10 4.56–15.20 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 47.81 41.02–54.60 39.35–56.27 | 53.04 46.26–59.83 44.58–61.50 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 466 399–533 381–552 | 502 435–568 418–586 | 968 834–1101 798–1137 | 38% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.87 63.85–71.90 62.55–73.20 | 75.34 71.02–79.67 69.71–80.98 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 12.36 9.53–15.20 8.77–15.96 | 10.88 7.94–13.83 7.19–14.57 | 23.24 17.46–29.03 15.96–30.53 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.72 1.56–3.88 1.26–4.18 | 1.62 0.52–2.71 0.24–3.00 | 4.33 2.08–6.59 1.49–7.18 | 61% 18% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.38 1.20–5.56 0.64–6.12 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.77 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.99–4.95 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+