Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.142.63safe0.52–2.450.29–2.000.81–4.45safer0.26–2.700.06–2.230.33–4.93
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.858.50safe2.78–6.512.11–5.594.89–12.10safer2.29–7.001.64–6.063.94–13.06
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2711.9526.22safe10.34–18.198.39–15.5218.73–33.71safer9.25–19.287.43–16.4716.68–35.76
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.158.1217.27safe6.21–12.105.43–10.8011.65–22.89safer5.38–12.934.70–11.5310.08–24.46
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.143.507.64safe2.25–6.021.85–5.154.10–11.17safer1.71–6.561.36–5.653.07–12.21
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.7410.54safe3.59–8.012.74–6.746.33–14.76safer3.01–8.592.21–7.285.22–15.86
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.1041.83safe51.31–64.8935.05–48.62safer49.64–66.5633.38–50.29
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction513346859safe446–581279–412725–993safer428–599262–430690–1028
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction67.4565.39safe63.42–71.4861.06–69.71safer62.13–72.7859.75–71.02
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8811.8221.69safe7.04–12.718.87–14.7615.91–27.48safer6.28–13.478.12–15.5114.41–28.98
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.714.36safe0.49–2.811.62–3.802.10–6.61safer0.18–3.111.33–4.091.51–7.20
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.723.26safe0.50–2.600.59–2.841.08–5.44safer0.23–2.860.30–3.140.53–6.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
33%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.155.73safe1.15–4.021.59–4.702.74–8.72safer0.76–4.411.17–5.131.93–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.51 2.29–7.00 | 3.85 2.11–5.59 1.64–6.06 | 8.50 4.89–12.10 3.94–13.06 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.27 10.34–18.19 9.25–19.28 | 11.95 8.39–15.52 7.43–16.47 | 26.22 18.73–33.71 16.68–35.76 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.15 6.21–12.10 5.38–12.93 | 8.12 5.43–10.80 4.70–11.53 | 17.27 11.65–22.89 10.08–24.46 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.14 2.25–6.02 1.71–6.56 | 3.50 1.85–5.15 1.36–5.65 | 7.64 4.10–11.17 3.07–12.21 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.59–8.01 3.01–8.59 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.21–7.28 | 10.54 6.33–14.76 5.22–15.86 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 58.10 51.31–64.89 49.64–66.56 | 41.83 35.05–48.62 33.38–50.29 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 513 446–581 428–599 | 346 279–412 262–430 | 859 725–993 690–1028 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.45 63.42–71.48 62.13–72.78 | 65.39 61.06–69.71 59.75–71.02 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 9.88 7.04–12.71 6.28–13.47 | 11.82 8.87–14.76 8.12–15.51 | 21.69 15.91–27.48 14.41–28.98 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.18–3.11 | 2.71 1.62–3.80 1.33–4.09 | 4.36 2.10–6.61 1.51–7.20 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.23–2.86 | 1.72 0.59–2.84 0.30–3.14 | 3.26 1.08–5.44 0.53–6.00 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.17–5.13 | 5.73 2.74–8.72 1.93–9.53 | 33% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.