Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.312.71safe0.43–2.370.45–2.160.89–4.53safer0.18–2.620.23–2.390.41–5.01
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.419.15safe2.88–6.602.67–6.165.55–12.76safer2.39–7.092.21–6.624.59–13.71
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0912.1926.28safe10.16–18.018.63–15.7518.79–33.77safer9.07–19.107.67–16.7116.74–35.82
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.268.0617.32safe6.32–12.205.38–10.7411.69–22.94safer5.49–13.034.64–11.4810.13–24.51
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.703.136.83safe1.82–5.581.47–4.783.29–10.36safer1.28–6.130.98–5.272.26–11.40
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.474.539.99safe3.25–7.682.53–6.535.78–14.21safer2.68–8.251.99–7.064.67–15.31
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.4652.11safe40.67–54.2545.32–58.89safer39.00–55.9243.65–60.56
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction447506953safe380–514439–572819–1087safer362–532422–590784–1122
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction72.8775.98safe68.84–76.9071.65–80.30safer67.55–78.1970.34–81.61
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9912.4224.42safe9.15–14.839.48–15.3718.63–30.20safer8.40–15.588.73–16.1217.13–31.70
Offsides
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.785.64safe1.70–4.031.68–3.873.39–7.90safer1.40–4.331.40–4.162.80–8.48
Yellow cards
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.993.70safe0.65–2.750.86–3.121.52–5.87safer0.39–3.020.57–3.410.96–6.43
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.893.246.13safe1.45–4.321.69–4.803.14–9.12safer1.06–4.711.26–5.222.32–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.31 0.45–2.16 0.23–2.39 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.88–6.60 2.39–7.09 | 4.41 2.67–6.16 2.21–6.62 | 9.15 5.55–12.76 4.59–13.71 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.09 10.16–18.01 9.07–19.10 | 12.19 8.63–15.75 7.67–16.71 | 26.28 18.79–33.77 16.74–35.82 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.26 6.32–12.20 5.49–13.03 | 8.06 5.38–10.74 4.64–11.48 | 17.32 11.69–22.94 10.13–24.51 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 1.82–5.58 1.28–6.13 | 3.13 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 6.83 3.29–10.36 2.26–11.40 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.47 3.25–7.68 2.68–8.25 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 1.99–7.06 | 9.99 5.78–14.21 4.67–15.31 | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 47.46 40.67–54.25 39.00–55.92 | 52.11 45.32–58.89 43.65–60.56 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 447 380–514 362–532 | 506 439–572 422–590 | 953 819–1087 784–1122 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.87 68.84–76.90 67.55–78.19 | 75.98 71.65–80.30 70.34–81.61 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.15–14.83 8.40–15.58 | 12.42 9.48–15.37 8.73–16.12 | 24.42 18.63–30.20 17.13–31.70 | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.86 1.70–4.03 1.40–4.33 | 2.78 1.68–3.87 1.40–4.16 | 5.64 3.39–7.90 2.80–8.48 | 43% 17% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 3.70 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 6.13 3.14–9.12 2.32–9.93 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.