Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.172.63safe0.50–2.430.31–2.020.81–4.46safer0.25–2.680.09–2.250.33–4.94
Shots on target
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.049.50safe3.60–7.322.30–5.795.90–13.11safer3.11–7.811.83–6.254.94–14.06
Total shots
76%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2311.9928.22safe12.30–20.158.43–15.5520.73–35.71safer11.21–21.247.47–16.5118.68–37.76
Shots in box
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction10.128.2218.34safe7.17–13.065.54–10.9012.72–23.96safer6.35–13.894.80–11.6411.15–25.53
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.552.987.53safe2.67–6.431.33–4.644.00–11.07safer2.12–6.970.84–5.132.96–12.10
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.724.5410.27safe3.51–7.942.54–6.546.05–14.48safer2.94–8.512.01–7.084.94–15.59
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction56.3344.22safe49.54–63.1237.44–51.01safer47.87–64.7935.77–52.68
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction476361837safe409–543294–427703–970safer391–561277–445667–1006
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction70.5369.14safe66.50–74.5664.81–73.46safer65.21–75.8563.50–74.77
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9011.8522.75safe8.06–13.748.91–14.8016.97–28.54safer7.31–14.498.16–15.5515.47–30.04
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.103.78safe0.52–2.841.01–3.191.53–6.03safer0.22–3.140.72–3.480.94–6.62
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.083.87safe0.75–2.850.95–3.201.70–6.05safer0.48–3.120.65–3.501.14–6.61
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.516.17safe1.22–4.091.96–5.073.18–9.16safer0.83–4.481.53–5.492.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.25–2.68 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.09–2.25 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.46 3.60–7.32 3.11–7.81 | 4.04 2.30–5.79 1.83–6.25 | 9.50 5.90–13.11 4.94–14.06 | 62% 27% |
| Total shots | 16.23 12.30–20.15 11.21–21.24 | 11.99 8.43–15.55 7.47–16.51 | 28.22 20.73–35.71 18.68–37.76 | 76% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.12 7.17–13.06 6.35–13.89 | 8.22 5.54–10.90 4.80–11.64 | 18.34 12.72–23.96 11.15–25.53 | 63% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.67–6.43 2.12–6.97 | 2.98 1.33–4.64 0.84–5.13 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.10 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.51–7.94 2.94–8.51 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.08 | 10.27 6.05–14.48 4.94–15.59 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 56.33 49.54–63.12 47.87–64.79 | 44.22 37.44–51.01 35.77–52.68 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 476 409–543 391–561 | 361 294–427 277–445 | 837 703–970 667–1006 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.53 66.50–74.56 65.21–75.85 | 69.14 64.81–73.46 63.50–74.77 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 10.90 8.06–13.74 7.31–14.49 | 11.85 8.91–14.80 8.16–15.55 | 22.75 16.97–28.54 15.47–30.04 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.14 | 2.10 1.01–3.19 0.72–3.48 | 3.78 1.53–6.03 0.94–6.62 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.12 | 2.08 0.95–3.20 0.65–3.50 | 3.87 1.70–6.05 1.14–6.61 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.51 1.96–5.07 1.53–5.49 | 6.17 3.18–9.16 2.37–9.98 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.