Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.492.67safe0.20–2.140.64–2.350.84–4.49safer0.00–2.390.41–2.580.36–4.97
Shots on target
32%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.804.618.41safe1.94–5.662.87–6.354.81–12.02safer1.45–6.152.40–6.823.85–12.97
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2213.5424.76safe7.30–15.159.98–17.1017.28–32.25safer6.21–16.249.02–18.0615.23–34.30
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.189.0517.24safe5.24–11.136.37–11.7311.61–22.86safer4.41–11.965.63–12.4710.05–24.43
Blocked shots
25%
13%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.994.327.31safe1.11–4.872.67–5.973.78–10.85safer0.57–5.422.17–6.462.74–11.88
Corners
41%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.855.099.94safe2.64–7.063.09–7.095.72–14.15safer2.06–7.642.55–7.624.62–15.26
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.5455.47safe38.75–52.3348.68–62.25safer37.08–54.0047.01–63.92
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction408492901safe341–476426–559767–1034safer323–494408–576731–1070
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction63.8575.44safe59.82–67.8871.12–79.76safer58.52–69.1769.81–81.07
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.449.6721.11safe8.61–14.286.73–12.6115.33–26.90safer7.85–15.045.98–13.3613.83–28.40
Offsides
71%
14%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction3.521.745.26safe2.36–4.680.65–2.843.01–7.52safer2.06–4.980.36–3.122.42–8.11
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.673.29safe0.58–2.670.54–2.801.12–5.47safer0.31–2.940.25–3.090.56–6.03
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.042.535.57safe1.60–4.470.98–4.092.58–8.56safer1.21–4.860.55–4.511.77–9.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.49 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.67 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 30% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.94–5.66 1.45–6.15 | 4.61 2.87–6.35 2.40–6.82 | 8.41 4.81–12.02 3.85–12.97 | 32% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 11.22 7.30–15.15 6.21–16.24 | 13.54 9.98–17.10 9.02–18.06 | 24.76 17.28–32.25 15.23–34.30 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 8.18 5.24–11.13 4.41–11.96 | 9.05 6.37–11.73 5.63–12.47 | 17.24 11.61–22.86 10.05–24.43 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 1.11–4.87 0.57–5.42 | 4.32 2.67–5.97 2.17–6.46 | 7.31 3.78–10.85 2.74–11.88 | 25% 13% 62% |
| Corners | 4.85 2.64–7.06 2.06–7.64 | 5.09 3.09–7.09 2.55–7.62 | 9.94 5.72–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 41% 47% |
| Possession % | 45.54 38.75–52.33 37.08–54.00 | 55.47 48.68–62.25 47.01–63.92 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 408 341–476 323–494 | 492 426–559 408–576 | 901 767–1034 731–1070 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.85 59.82–67.88 58.52–69.17 | 75.44 71.12–79.76 69.81–81.07 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.61–14.28 7.85–15.04 | 9.67 6.73–12.61 5.98–13.36 | 21.11 15.33–26.90 13.83–28.40 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 3.52 2.36–4.68 2.06–4.98 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.12 | 5.26 3.01–7.52 2.42–8.11 | 71% 14% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.58–2.67 0.31–2.94 | 1.67 0.54–2.80 0.25–3.09 | 3.29 1.12–5.47 0.56–6.03 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.60–4.47 1.21–4.86 | 2.53 0.98–4.09 0.55–4.51 | 5.57 2.58–8.56 1.77–9.37 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.