Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.272.72safe0.49–2.420.42–2.130.90–4.55safer0.23–2.670.19–2.350.42–5.03
Shots on target
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.548.97safe2.58–6.302.79–6.285.37–12.58safer2.09–6.792.33–6.744.41–13.53
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5512.4627.02safe10.63–18.488.90–16.0319.53–34.51safer9.54–19.577.94–16.9917.48–36.56
Shots in box
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.678.0718.74safe7.73–13.615.39–10.7513.11–24.36safer6.90–14.444.65–11.4911.55–25.93
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.967.95safe2.10–5.862.31–5.624.41–11.48safer1.56–6.411.82–6.113.38–12.52
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.384.9010.29safe3.17–7.602.90–6.906.07–14.50safer2.60–8.172.37–7.444.97–15.61
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction44.5355.60safe37.74–51.3248.81–62.38safer36.07–52.9947.14–64.05
Passes
24%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction369452821safe302–436385–518687–955safer284–455368–536652–990
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction62.7271.51safe58.69–66.7567.19–75.84safer57.40–68.0465.88–77.15
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4412.0823.52safe8.60–14.289.13–15.0217.74–29.30safer7.85–15.048.39–15.7716.23–30.81
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.523.52safe0.84–3.160.43–2.611.27–5.78safer0.54–3.470.14–2.900.68–6.37
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.083.59safe0.47–2.560.95–3.201.41–5.77safer0.20–2.830.66–3.500.85–6.33
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.965.90safe1.51–4.381.40–4.522.91–8.90safer1.12–4.770.98–4.942.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.35 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 4.54 2.79–6.28 2.33–6.74 | 8.97 5.37–12.58 4.41–13.53 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 14.55 10.63–18.48 9.54–19.57 | 12.46 8.90–16.03 7.94–16.99 | 27.02 19.53–34.51 17.48–36.56 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 10.67 7.73–13.61 6.90–14.44 | 8.07 5.39–10.75 4.65–11.49 | 18.74 13.11–24.36 11.55–25.93 | 69% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.10–5.86 1.56–6.41 | 3.96 2.31–5.62 1.82–6.11 | 7.95 4.41–11.48 3.38–12.52 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.17–7.60 2.60–8.17 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.37–7.44 | 10.29 6.07–14.50 4.97–15.61 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 44.53 37.74–51.32 36.07–52.99 | 55.60 48.81–62.38 47.14–64.05 | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 369 302–436 284–455 | 452 385–518 368–536 | 821 687–955 652–990 | 24% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.72 58.69–66.75 57.40–68.04 | 71.51 67.19–75.84 65.88–77.15 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.60–14.28 7.85–15.04 | 12.08 9.13–15.02 8.39–15.77 | 23.52 17.74–29.30 16.23–30.81 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.54–3.47 | 1.52 0.43–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.52 1.27–5.78 0.68–6.37 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.47–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 2.08 0.95–3.20 0.66–3.50 | 3.59 1.41–5.77 0.85–6.33 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 2.96 1.40–4.52 0.98–4.94 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.