Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.122.49safe0.40–2.340.27–1.980.67–4.32safer0.15–2.590.04–2.210.19–4.80
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.133.827.96safe2.27–5.992.08–5.574.35–11.56safer1.78–6.481.62–6.033.40–12.52
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6811.6325.31safe9.75–17.608.07–15.2017.82–32.80safer8.66–18.697.11–16.1615.77–34.85
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.237.7616.99safe6.28–12.175.08–10.4411.36–22.61safer5.45–13.004.34–11.189.80–24.18
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.683.847.52safe1.79–5.562.19–5.493.98–11.05safer1.25–6.101.70–5.992.95–12.09
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.944.5810.52safe3.73–8.152.58–6.586.31–14.74safer3.15–8.732.05–7.115.20–15.84
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.4843.36safe48.69–62.2736.58–50.15safer47.02–63.9434.91–51.82
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction452337789safe384–519270–403655–922safer366–537253–421619–958
Pass accuracy %
47%
47%
homeawayprediction67.0167.02safe62.98–71.0462.70–71.35safer61.69–72.3361.39–72.65
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9910.8521.84safe8.15–13.837.90–13.7916.06–27.62safer7.40–14.587.16–14.5414.55–29.13
Offsides
54%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.674.08safe1.25–3.570.58–2.771.83–6.34safer0.95–3.870.29–3.051.24–6.93
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.833.57safe0.69–2.790.71–2.961.40–5.75safer0.42–3.050.41–3.250.84–6.31
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.945.39safe1.02–3.891.38–4.502.40–8.38safer0.63–4.270.96–4.921.59–9.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.49 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 43% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 3.82 2.08–5.57 1.62–6.03 | 7.96 4.35–11.56 3.40–12.52 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.68 9.75–17.60 8.66–18.69 | 11.63 8.07–15.20 7.11–16.16 | 25.31 17.82–32.80 15.77–34.85 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.23 6.28–12.17 5.45–13.00 | 7.76 5.08–10.44 4.34–11.18 | 16.99 11.36–22.61 9.80–24.18 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.79–5.56 1.25–6.10 | 3.84 2.19–5.49 1.70–5.99 | 7.52 3.98–11.05 2.95–12.09 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.94 3.73–8.15 3.15–8.73 | 4.58 2.58–6.58 2.05–7.11 | 10.52 6.31–14.74 5.20–15.84 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 55.48 48.69–62.27 47.02–63.94 | 43.36 36.58–50.15 34.91–51.82 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 452 384–519 366–537 | 337 270–403 253–421 | 789 655–922 619–958 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.01 62.98–71.04 61.69–72.33 | 67.02 62.70–71.35 61.39–72.65 | — | 47% 47% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.15–13.83 7.40–14.58 | 10.85 7.90–13.79 7.16–14.54 | 21.84 16.06–27.62 14.55–29.13 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.41 1.25–3.57 0.95–3.87 | 1.67 0.58–2.77 0.29–3.05 | 4.08 1.83–6.34 1.24–6.93 | 54% 19% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.42–3.05 | 1.83 0.71–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.57 1.40–5.75 0.84–6.31 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.27 | 2.94 1.38–4.50 0.96–4.92 | 5.39 2.40–8.38 1.59–9.20 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+