Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.593.13safe0.56–2.500.74–2.451.30–4.95safer0.31–2.750.51–2.680.83–5.43
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.804.689.48safe2.94–6.672.94–6.425.88–13.09safer2.45–7.152.47–6.894.92–14.04
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5813.3827.95safe10.65–18.509.81–16.9420.46–35.44safer9.56–19.598.85–17.9018.41–37.49
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.489.6419.12safe6.54–12.426.96–12.3213.50–24.74safer5.71–13.256.22–13.0511.93–26.31
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.753.116.86safe1.86–5.631.46–4.773.33–10.40safer1.32–6.170.97–5.262.29–11.43
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.315.2910.60safe3.09–7.523.29–7.296.39–14.81safer2.52–8.092.76–7.835.28–15.92
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction47.7951.88safe41.00–54.5845.10–58.67safer39.33–56.2543.43–60.34
Passes
40%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction399429827safe332–466362–495694–961safer313–484345–513658–997
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction66.7872.20safe62.75–70.8167.88–76.53safer61.46–72.1166.57–77.83
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0511.5722.62safe8.21–13.898.62–14.5116.83–28.40safer7.46–14.647.87–15.2615.33–29.90
Offsides
18%
14%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.863.465.32safe0.70–3.032.36–4.553.07–7.58safer0.40–3.332.08–4.842.48–8.17
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.903.50safe0.56–2.650.77–3.031.32–5.68safer0.29–2.920.48–3.320.77–6.24
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.073.216.29safe1.64–4.511.66–4.773.30–9.28safer1.25–4.901.23–5.202.48–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.59 0.74–2.45 0.51–2.68 | 3.13 1.30–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 37% 24% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.94–6.67 2.45–7.15 | 4.68 2.94–6.42 2.47–6.89 | 9.48 5.88–13.09 4.92–14.04 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.58 10.65–18.50 9.56–19.59 | 13.38 9.81–16.94 8.85–17.90 | 27.95 20.46–35.44 18.41–37.49 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.48 6.54–12.42 5.71–13.25 | 9.64 6.96–12.32 6.22–13.05 | 19.12 13.50–24.74 11.93–26.31 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.86–5.63 1.32–6.17 | 3.11 1.46–4.77 0.97–5.26 | 6.86 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.43 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.09–7.52 2.52–8.09 | 5.29 3.29–7.29 2.76–7.83 | 10.60 6.39–14.81 5.28–15.92 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.79 41.00–54.58 39.33–56.25 | 51.88 45.10–58.67 43.43–60.34 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 399 332–466 313–484 | 429 362–495 345–513 | 827 694–961 658–997 | 40% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.78 62.75–70.81 61.46–72.11 | 72.20 67.88–76.53 66.57–77.83 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 11.05 8.21–13.89 7.46–14.64 | 11.57 8.62–14.51 7.87–15.26 | 22.62 16.83–28.40 15.33–29.90 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.03 0.40–3.33 | 3.46 2.36–4.55 2.08–4.84 | 5.32 3.07–7.58 2.48–8.17 | 18% 14% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.50 1.32–5.68 0.77–6.24 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 6.29 3.30–9.28 2.48–10.09 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.