Championship·Regular Season - 40·
Championship·Regular Season - 40·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.332.93safe0.64–2.570.47–2.181.11–4.75safer0.38–2.820.24–2.410.63–5.23
Shots on target
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.208.95safe2.89–6.612.46–5.955.35–12.56safer2.40–7.102.00–6.414.39–13.51
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2512.7727.02safe10.33–18.189.21–16.3319.54–34.51safer9.24–19.278.25–17.2917.48–36.56
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.508.3116.81safe5.55–11.445.63–10.9911.19–22.43safer4.73–12.274.89–11.739.62–24.00
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.377.41safe2.16–5.931.72–5.023.88–10.95safer1.62–6.471.22–5.512.84–11.98
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.5410.10safe3.35–7.772.54–6.545.89–14.31safer2.77–8.352.01–7.084.78–15.42
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction57.3743.17safe50.58–64.1636.38–49.95safer48.91–65.8334.71–51.63
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction522361883safe454–589295–427749–1016safer436–607277–445713–1052
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction72.2969.00safe68.26–76.3264.68–73.33safer66.97–77.6163.37–74.64
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6111.9624.58safe9.78–15.459.02–14.9118.80–30.36safer9.02–16.218.27–15.6617.29–31.86
Offsides
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.524.28safe0.59–2.911.43–3.622.02–6.53safer0.29–3.221.14–3.901.44–7.12
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.141.994.13safe1.09–3.190.87–3.121.95–6.31safer0.82–3.450.57–3.411.40–6.87
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.935.82safe1.45–4.331.38–4.492.83–8.81safer1.07–4.710.95–4.912.02–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.64–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.33 0.47–2.18 0.24–2.41 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.89–6.61 2.40–7.10 | 4.20 2.46–5.95 2.00–6.41 | 8.95 5.35–12.56 4.39–13.51 | 50% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.25 10.33–18.18 9.24–19.27 | 12.77 9.21–16.33 8.25–17.29 | 27.02 19.54–34.51 17.48–36.56 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.50 5.55–11.44 4.73–12.27 | 8.31 5.63–10.99 4.89–11.73 | 16.81 11.19–22.43 9.62–24.00 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.16–5.93 1.62–6.47 | 3.37 1.72–5.02 1.22–5.51 | 7.41 3.88–10.95 2.84–11.98 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.56 3.35–7.77 2.77–8.35 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.08 | 10.10 5.89–14.31 4.78–15.42 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 57.37 50.58–64.16 48.91–65.83 | 43.17 36.38–49.95 34.71–51.63 | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 522 454–589 436–607 | 361 295–427 277–445 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.29 68.26–76.32 66.97–77.61 | 69.00 64.68–73.33 63.37–74.64 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 12.61 9.78–15.45 9.02–16.21 | 11.96 9.02–14.91 8.27–15.66 | 24.58 18.80–30.36 17.29–31.86 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.22 | 2.52 1.43–3.62 1.14–3.90 | 4.28 2.02–6.53 1.44–7.12 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.19 0.82–3.45 | 1.99 0.87–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.45–4.33 1.07–4.71 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.91 | 5.82 2.83–8.81 2.02–9.63 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.