Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
28%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.202.36safe0.19–2.130.34–2.050.53–4.18safer0.00–2.380.11–2.280.05–4.66
Shots on target
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.783.747.52safe1.92–5.652.00–5.483.92–11.13safer1.43–6.141.53–5.952.96–12.08
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.5524.62safe8.15–16.008.98–16.1117.14–32.11safer7.06–17.098.02–17.0715.09–34.16
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.817.9215.73safe4.87–10.755.24–10.6010.11–21.35safer4.04–11.584.50–11.348.54–22.92
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.753.917.66safe1.87–5.632.26–5.574.13–11.20safer1.32–6.171.77–6.063.09–12.23
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction5.055.3610.41safe2.84–7.263.36–7.366.20–14.63safer2.26–7.842.83–7.895.09–15.73
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction49.0950.38safe42.30–55.8843.59–57.16safer40.63–57.5541.92–58.83
Passes
48%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction368373741safe301–436307–440608–875safer283–454289–457572–911
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction61.5867.22safe57.55–65.6162.90–71.55safer56.26–66.9061.59–72.86
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5012.8324.34safe8.67–14.349.89–15.7818.55–30.12safer7.91–15.109.14–16.5317.05–31.62
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.643.36safe0.56–2.880.54–2.731.11–5.61safer0.26–3.190.26–3.020.52–6.20
Yellow cards
36%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.753.36safe0.55–2.650.62–2.881.18–5.53safer0.29–2.920.33–3.170.62–6.09
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.554.94safe0.96–3.830.99–4.111.95–7.94safer0.57–4.220.57–4.531.14–8.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.36 0.53–4.18 0.05–4.66 | 35% 28% 37% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.92–5.65 1.43–6.14 | 3.74 2.00–5.48 1.53–5.95 | 7.52 3.92–11.13 2.96–12.08 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.08 8.15–16.00 7.06–17.09 | 12.55 8.98–16.11 8.02–17.07 | 24.62 17.14–32.11 15.09–34.16 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.81 4.87–10.75 4.04–11.58 | 7.92 5.24–10.60 4.50–11.34 | 15.73 10.11–21.35 8.54–22.92 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.87–5.63 1.32–6.17 | 3.91 2.26–5.57 1.77–6.06 | 7.66 4.13–11.20 3.09–12.23 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.26 2.26–7.84 | 5.36 3.36–7.36 2.83–7.89 | 10.41 6.20–14.63 5.09–15.73 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 49.09 42.30–55.88 40.63–57.55 | 50.38 43.59–57.16 41.92–58.83 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 368 301–436 283–454 | 373 307–440 289–457 | 741 608–875 572–911 | 48% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.58 57.55–65.61 56.26–66.90 | 67.22 62.90–71.55 61.59–72.86 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 11.50 8.67–14.34 7.91–15.10 | 12.83 9.89–15.78 9.14–16.53 | 24.34 18.55–30.12 17.05–31.62 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.26–3.19 | 1.64 0.54–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 3.36 1.11–5.61 0.52–6.20 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.36 1.18–5.53 0.62–6.09 | 36% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.96–3.83 0.57–4.22 | 2.55 0.99–4.11 0.57–4.53 | 4.94 1.95–7.94 1.14–8.75 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.