Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
28%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.142.37safe0.26–2.200.28–1.990.55–4.19safer0.01–2.450.06–2.220.07–4.67
Shots on target
52%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.577.83safe2.39–6.121.83–5.324.22–11.43safer1.90–6.611.36–5.783.27–12.39
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5611.4725.03safe9.64–17.497.91–15.0317.54–32.52safer8.55–18.586.95–15.9915.49–34.57
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.298.0816.38safe5.35–11.235.40–10.7610.75–22.00safer4.52–12.064.67–11.509.19–23.57
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.507.54safe2.16–5.931.85–5.154.01–11.08safer1.62–6.471.36–5.652.97–12.12
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.419.81safe3.18–7.612.41–6.415.59–14.02safer2.61–8.181.88–6.954.49–15.13
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction51.2349.76safe44.44–58.0242.98–56.55safer42.77–59.6941.30–58.22
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction499468967safe432–566401–534833–1100safer414–585384–551797–1136
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction71.1872.46safe67.15–75.2168.14–76.78safer65.86–76.5166.83–78.09
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7010.2219.92safe6.87–12.547.27–13.1614.14–25.70safer6.11–13.306.52–13.9112.63–27.21
Offsides
45%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.282.86safe0.43–2.750.18–2.370.61–5.12safer0.13–3.050.00–2.660.02–5.71
Yellow cards
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.462.96safe0.45–2.550.33–2.590.78–5.14safer0.18–2.810.04–2.880.23–5.70
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
34%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.845.26safe0.98–3.851.29–4.402.26–8.25safer0.59–4.240.86–4.821.45–9.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 2.37 0.55–4.19 0.07–4.67 | 38% 28% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.12 1.90–6.61 | 3.57 1.83–5.32 1.36–5.78 | 7.83 4.22–11.43 3.27–12.39 | 52% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.56 9.64–17.49 8.55–18.58 | 11.47 7.91–15.03 6.95–15.99 | 25.03 17.54–32.52 15.49–34.57 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.35–11.23 4.52–12.06 | 8.08 5.40–10.76 4.67–11.50 | 16.38 10.75–22.00 9.19–23.57 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.16–5.93 1.62–6.47 | 3.50 1.85–5.15 1.36–5.65 | 7.54 4.01–11.08 2.97–12.12 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.41 2.41–6.41 1.88–6.95 | 9.81 5.59–14.02 4.49–15.13 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 51.23 44.44–58.02 42.77–59.69 | 49.76 42.98–56.55 41.30–58.22 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 499 432–566 414–585 | 468 401–534 384–551 | 967 833–1100 797–1136 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.18 67.15–75.21 65.86–76.51 | 72.46 68.14–76.78 66.83–78.09 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 9.70 6.87–12.54 6.11–13.30 | 10.22 7.27–13.16 6.52–13.91 | 19.92 14.14–25.70 12.63–27.21 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 1.28 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 2.86 0.61–5.12 0.02–5.71 | 45% 25% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.18–2.81 | 1.46 0.33–2.59 0.04–2.88 | 2.96 0.78–5.14 0.23–5.70 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.41 0.98–3.85 0.59–4.24 | 2.84 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.82 | 5.26 2.26–8.25 1.45–9.06 | 34% 18% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+