Championship·Regular Season - 40·
Championship·Regular Season - 40·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.293.02safe0.77–2.700.43–2.141.20–4.84safer0.52–2.950.20–2.370.72–5.32
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.079.03safe3.09–6.822.33–5.815.42–12.63safer2.60–7.311.86–6.284.47–13.59
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7612.8227.58safe10.83–18.689.26–16.3820.09–35.06safer9.74–19.778.30–17.3418.04–37.11
Shots in box
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction10.688.8419.52safe7.74–13.626.16–11.5213.90–25.14safer6.91–14.455.42–12.2612.33–26.71
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.194.188.37safe2.31–6.072.52–5.834.83–11.90safer1.76–6.612.03–6.323.79–12.94
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.964.7410.70safe3.75–8.172.74–6.746.48–14.91safer3.17–8.752.20–7.275.38–16.02
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.1244.42safe48.33–61.9137.64–51.21safer46.66–63.5835.97–52.88
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction484365849safe416–551299–432715–983safer398–569281–449680–1018
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction70.2270.37safe66.19–74.2466.04–74.69safer64.89–75.5464.74–76.00
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7311.4022.13safe7.90–13.578.45–14.3416.35–27.91safer7.14–14.337.70–15.0914.84–29.42
Offsides
53%
20%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.593.87safe1.11–3.430.50–2.681.61–6.12safer0.81–3.740.21–2.971.02–6.71
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.853.29safe0.39–2.490.72–2.981.12–5.47safer0.13–2.760.43–3.270.56–6.03
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
38%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.166.08safe1.49–4.361.60–4.713.09–9.07safer1.10–4.751.18–5.142.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.77–2.70 0.52–2.95 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.72–5.32 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.09–6.82 2.60–7.31 | 4.07 2.33–5.81 1.86–6.28 | 9.03 5.42–12.63 4.47–13.59 | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.76 10.83–18.68 9.74–19.77 | 12.82 9.26–16.38 8.30–17.34 | 27.58 20.09–35.06 18.04–37.11 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 10.68 7.74–13.62 6.91–14.45 | 8.84 6.16–11.52 5.42–12.26 | 19.52 13.90–25.14 12.33–26.71 | 62% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.31–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 4.18 2.52–5.83 2.03–6.32 | 8.37 4.83–11.90 3.79–12.94 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.96 3.75–8.17 3.17–8.75 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.20–7.27 | 10.70 6.48–14.91 5.38–16.02 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 55.12 48.33–61.91 46.66–63.58 | 44.42 37.64–51.21 35.97–52.88 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 484 416–551 398–569 | 365 299–432 281–449 | 849 715–983 680–1018 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.22 66.19–74.24 64.89–75.54 | 70.37 66.04–74.69 64.74–76.00 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 10.73 7.90–13.57 7.14–14.33 | 11.40 8.45–14.34 7.70–15.09 | 22.13 16.35–27.91 14.84–29.42 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.27 1.11–3.43 0.81–3.74 | 1.59 0.50–2.68 0.21–2.97 | 3.87 1.61–6.12 1.02–6.71 | 53% 20% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.29 1.12–5.47 0.56–6.03 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.49–4.36 1.10–4.75 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.18–5.14 | 6.08 3.09–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 38% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.