Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.172.63safe0.49–2.430.31–2.020.80–4.45safer0.24–2.680.08–2.250.32–4.93
Shots on target
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.708.37safe2.81–6.531.95–5.444.76–11.97safer2.32–7.021.49–5.903.81–12.93
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9711.4525.42safe10.04–17.897.89–15.0217.94–32.91safer8.95–18.986.93–15.9815.88–34.96
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.737.7016.43safe5.78–11.675.02–10.3910.81–22.05safer4.96–12.504.29–11.129.24–23.62
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.827.67safe1.97–5.742.16–5.474.14–11.21safer1.43–6.281.67–5.963.10–12.24
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.924.3510.27safe3.70–8.132.35–6.356.05–14.48safer3.13–8.701.82–6.884.95–15.59
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction59.7340.31safe52.94–66.5233.53–47.10safer51.27–68.1931.86–48.77
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction531344875safe464–598278–411742–1009safer446–616260–428706–1045
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction72.9668.33safe68.93–76.9964.01–72.66safer67.64–78.2862.70–73.97
Fouls
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7312.9422.67safe6.89–12.5610.00–15.8916.88–28.45safer6.13–13.329.25–16.6315.38–29.95
Offsides
67%
17%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.651.243.89safe1.49–3.810.15–2.341.64–6.14safer1.19–4.110.00–2.631.05–6.73
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.213.66safe0.40–2.501.08–3.341.48–5.83safer0.13–2.760.79–3.630.92–6.39
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.145.57safe0.99–3.861.59–4.702.57–8.56safer0.60–4.251.16–5.121.76–9.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.81–6.53 2.32–7.02 | 3.70 1.95–5.44 1.49–5.90 | 8.37 4.76–11.97 3.81–12.93 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.97 10.04–17.89 8.95–18.98 | 11.45 7.89–15.02 6.93–15.98 | 25.42 17.94–32.91 15.88–34.96 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 5.78–11.67 4.96–12.50 | 7.70 5.02–10.39 4.29–11.12 | 16.43 10.81–22.05 9.24–23.62 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.97–5.74 1.43–6.28 | 3.82 2.16–5.47 1.67–5.96 | 7.67 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.24 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 5.92 3.70–8.13 3.13–8.70 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.82–6.88 | 10.27 6.05–14.48 4.95–15.59 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 59.73 52.94–66.52 51.27–68.19 | 40.31 33.53–47.10 31.86–48.77 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 531 464–598 446–616 | 344 278–411 260–428 | 875 742–1009 706–1045 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.96 68.93–76.99 67.64–78.28 | 68.33 64.01–72.66 62.70–73.97 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 9.73 6.89–12.56 6.13–13.32 | 12.94 10.00–15.89 9.25–16.63 | 22.67 16.88–28.45 15.38–29.95 | 22% 72% |
| Offsides | 2.65 1.49–3.81 1.19–4.11 | 1.24 0.15–2.34 0.00–2.63 | 3.89 1.64–6.14 1.05–6.73 | 67% 17% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.76 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 3.66 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.39 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.57 2.57–8.56 1.76–9.37 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+