Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.803.16safe0.38–2.320.95–2.661.33–4.98safer0.13–2.570.72–2.890.85–5.46
Shots on target
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.275.039.30safe2.41–6.133.29–6.775.69–12.90safer1.92–6.622.82–7.244.74–13.86
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2913.9427.22safe9.36–17.2110.37–17.5019.74–34.71safer8.27–18.309.41–18.4617.69–36.76
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction9.179.4918.65safe6.22–12.116.80–12.1713.03–24.27safer5.39–12.946.07–12.9011.46–25.84
Blocked shots
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.784.057.83safe1.90–5.662.40–5.704.29–11.36safer1.35–6.201.90–6.203.26–12.40
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.135.0310.16safe2.92–7.343.03–7.035.95–14.37safer2.34–7.922.50–7.564.84–15.48
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction43.7856.08safe36.99–50.5749.29–62.86safer35.32–52.2447.62–64.53
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction377478854safe309–444411–544721–988safer291–462394–562685–1024
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction67.2474.51safe63.21–71.2770.19–78.84safer61.92–72.5668.88–80.14
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2410.3021.54safe8.40–14.077.36–13.2515.76–27.32safer7.64–14.836.61–14.0014.25–28.83
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.903.69safe0.64–2.960.80–2.991.44–5.95safer0.34–3.260.52–3.280.85–6.54
Yellow cards
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.573.22safe0.60–2.700.44–2.701.05–5.40safer0.34–2.970.15–2.990.49–5.96
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
46%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.815.86safe1.62–4.491.25–4.362.87–8.85safer1.23–4.880.83–4.792.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.80 0.95–2.66 0.72–2.89 | 3.16 1.33–4.98 0.85–5.46 | 29% 23% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.41–6.13 1.92–6.62 | 5.03 3.29–6.77 2.82–7.24 | 9.30 5.69–12.90 4.74–13.86 | 34% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.29 9.36–17.21 8.27–18.30 | 13.94 10.37–17.50 9.41–18.46 | 27.22 19.74–34.71 17.69–36.76 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 9.17 6.22–12.11 5.39–12.94 | 9.49 6.80–12.17 6.07–12.90 | 18.65 13.03–24.27 11.46–25.84 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 1.90–5.66 1.35–6.20 | 4.05 2.40–5.70 1.90–6.20 | 7.83 4.29–11.36 3.26–12.40 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.92–7.34 2.34–7.92 | 5.03 3.03–7.03 2.50–7.56 | 10.16 5.95–14.37 4.84–15.48 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 43.78 36.99–50.57 35.32–52.24 | 56.08 49.29–62.86 47.62–64.53 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 377 309–444 291–462 | 478 411–544 394–562 | 854 721–988 685–1024 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.24 63.21–71.27 61.92–72.56 | 74.51 70.19–78.84 68.88–80.14 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 11.24 8.40–14.07 7.64–14.83 | 10.30 7.36–13.25 6.61–14.00 | 21.54 15.76–27.32 14.25–28.83 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.90 0.80–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 1.57 0.44–2.70 0.15–2.99 | 3.22 1.05–5.40 0.49–5.96 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 2.81 1.25–4.36 0.83–4.79 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 46% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.