Championship·Regular Season - 43·
Championship·Regular Season - 43·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.652.97safe0.35–2.290.79–2.501.14–4.79safer0.10–2.540.56–2.730.66–5.27
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.145.179.31safe2.27–6.003.43–6.915.70–12.91safer1.78–6.492.96–7.384.75–13.87
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5514.0226.57safe8.63–16.4710.46–17.5819.08–34.06safer7.53–17.579.50–18.5417.03–36.11
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.628.7017.33safe5.68–11.576.02–11.3811.70–22.95safer4.85–12.405.29–12.1210.14–24.52
Blocked shots
28%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.234.357.58safe1.35–5.122.70–6.004.05–11.12safer0.81–5.662.21–6.503.01–12.16
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.789.85safe2.85–7.282.78–6.785.63–14.06safer2.28–7.852.25–7.324.53–15.17
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction43.9356.00safe37.14–50.7249.21–62.78safer35.47–52.3947.54–64.45
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction409506915safe342–476439–572781–1048safer324–494422–590745–1084
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction66.0775.67safe62.04–70.1071.34–79.99safer60.75–71.3970.03–81.30
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1911.9725.16safe10.36–16.039.02–14.9119.38–30.94safer9.60–16.798.27–15.6617.87–32.45
Offsides
57%
17%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.115.12safe1.85–4.171.01–3.202.87–7.37safer1.55–4.470.73–3.492.28–7.96
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.161.994.16safe1.11–3.210.86–3.121.98–6.33safer0.85–3.480.57–3.411.42–6.89
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.84
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.152.675.82safe1.72–4.591.11–4.222.83–8.81safer1.33–4.980.69–4.652.02–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.65 0.79–2.50 0.56–2.73 | 2.97 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.27–6.00 1.78–6.49 | 5.17 3.43–6.91 2.96–7.38 | 9.31 5.70–12.91 4.75–13.87 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 12.55 8.63–16.47 7.53–17.57 | 14.02 10.46–17.58 9.50–18.54 | 26.57 19.08–34.06 17.03–36.11 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 8.62 5.68–11.57 4.85–12.40 | 8.70 6.02–11.38 5.29–12.12 | 17.33 11.70–22.95 10.14–24.52 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.35–5.12 0.81–5.66 | 4.35 2.70–6.00 2.21–6.50 | 7.58 4.05–11.12 3.01–12.16 | 28% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.85–7.28 2.28–7.85 | 4.78 2.78–6.78 2.25–7.32 | 9.85 5.63–14.06 4.53–15.17 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 43.93 37.14–50.72 35.47–52.39 | 56.00 49.21–62.78 47.54–64.45 | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 409 342–476 324–494 | 506 439–572 422–590 | 915 781–1048 745–1084 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.07 62.04–70.10 60.75–71.39 | 75.67 71.34–79.99 70.03–81.30 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 13.19 10.36–16.03 9.60–16.79 | 11.97 9.02–14.91 8.27–15.66 | 25.16 19.38–30.94 17.87–32.45 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 3.01 1.85–4.17 1.55–4.47 | 2.11 1.01–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 5.12 2.87–7.37 2.28–7.96 | 57% 17% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.21 0.85–3.48 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.16 1.98–6.33 1.42–6.89 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.15 1.72–4.59 1.33–4.98 | 2.67 1.11–4.22 0.69–4.65 | 5.82 2.83–8.81 2.02–9.63 | 49% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+