Championship·Regular Season - 43·
Championship·Regular Season - 43·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.392.77safe0.41–2.350.54–2.250.95–4.60safer0.16–2.600.31–2.480.47–5.07
Shots on target
41%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.384.578.95safe2.52–6.242.83–6.315.34–12.55safer2.03–6.732.36–6.784.39–13.51
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8513.2426.09safe8.92–16.779.67–16.8018.60–33.57safer7.83–17.878.72–17.7616.55–35.62
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.509.0017.50safe5.56–11.446.32–11.6811.87–23.12safer4.73–12.275.58–12.4110.31–24.69
Blocked shots
40%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.263.436.69safe1.38–5.151.78–5.083.16–10.23safer0.84–5.691.28–5.572.12–11.26
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.135.1410.26safe2.91–7.343.14–7.146.05–14.48safer2.34–7.912.60–7.674.94–15.58
Possession %
47%
49%
homeawayprediction50.1650.61safe43.37–56.9543.82–57.39safer41.70–58.6242.15–59.07
Passes
54%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction422408830safe354–489341–474696–963safer336–507324–492660–999
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction68.8270.47safe64.79–72.8566.14–74.79safer63.50–74.1464.83–76.10
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4611.3723.83safe9.63–15.308.42–14.3118.05–29.61safer8.87–16.067.67–15.0616.54–31.12
Offsides
57%
19%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.561.704.27safe1.40–3.720.61–2.802.01–6.52safer1.10–4.030.32–3.081.42–7.11
Yellow cards
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.094.01safe0.87–2.970.96–3.221.83–6.19safer0.61–3.240.67–3.511.27–6.74
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.913.015.91safe1.47–4.341.45–4.562.92–8.91safer1.08–4.731.03–4.992.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.07 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.24 2.03–6.73 | 4.57 2.83–6.31 2.36–6.78 | 8.95 5.34–12.55 4.39–13.51 | 41% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.85 8.92–16.77 7.83–17.87 | 13.24 9.67–16.80 8.72–17.76 | 26.09 18.60–33.57 16.55–35.62 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.50 5.56–11.44 4.73–12.27 | 9.00 6.32–11.68 5.58–12.41 | 17.50 11.87–23.12 10.31–24.69 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 3.43 1.78–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 6.69 3.16–10.23 2.12–11.26 | 40% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.91–7.34 2.34–7.91 | 5.14 3.14–7.14 2.60–7.67 | 10.26 6.05–14.48 4.94–15.58 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 50.16 43.37–56.95 41.70–58.62 | 50.61 43.82–57.39 42.15–59.07 | — | 47% 49% |
| Passes | 422 354–489 336–507 | 408 341–474 324–492 | 830 696–963 660–999 | 54% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.82 64.79–72.85 63.50–74.14 | 70.47 66.14–74.79 64.83–76.10 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 12.46 9.63–15.30 8.87–16.06 | 11.37 8.42–14.31 7.67–15.06 | 23.83 18.05–29.61 16.54–31.12 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.56 1.40–3.72 1.10–4.03 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.08 | 4.27 2.01–6.52 1.42–7.11 | 57% 19% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 4.01 1.83–6.19 1.27–6.74 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.03–4.99 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.