Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
27%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.362.40safe0.07–2.010.51–2.220.58–4.22safer0.00–2.260.28–2.440.10–4.70
Shots on target
37%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.967.50safe1.67–5.402.22–5.713.89–11.10safer1.18–5.891.76–6.172.94–12.06
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6812.5224.21safe7.76–15.618.96–16.0916.72–31.70safer6.67–16.708.00–17.0514.67–33.75
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.678.1215.79safe4.73–10.625.44–10.8010.17–21.41safer3.90–11.454.70–11.548.60–22.98
Blocked shots
31%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.977.11safe1.25–5.022.32–5.633.57–10.64safer0.71–5.561.83–6.122.53–11.68
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.6710.27safe2.40–6.823.67–7.676.06–14.49safer1.82–7.403.13–8.204.95–15.60
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction37.7862.63safe30.99–44.5755.84–69.41safer29.32–46.2454.17–71.08
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction330526856safe262–397460–593722–990safer244–415442–610687–1025
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction64.0777.52safe60.04–68.1073.20–81.85safer58.75–69.3971.89–83.16
Fouls
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9710.4924.47safe11.14–16.817.55–13.4418.68–30.25safer10.38–17.576.80–14.1917.18–31.75
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.403.33safe0.77–3.090.31–2.501.08–5.59safer0.47–3.390.02–2.790.49–6.18
Yellow cards
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.653.49safe0.79–2.890.52–2.781.31–5.66safer0.52–3.150.23–3.070.75–6.22
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
46%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.425.14safe1.29–4.160.86–3.972.15–8.13safer0.90–4.550.44–4.401.34–8.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.36 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.44 | 2.40 0.58–4.22 0.10–4.70 | 29% 27% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.67–5.40 1.18–5.89 | 3.96 2.22–5.71 1.76–6.17 | 7.50 3.89–11.10 2.94–12.06 | 37% 15% 49% |
| Total shots | 11.68 7.76–15.61 6.67–16.70 | 12.52 8.96–16.09 8.00–17.05 | 24.21 16.72–31.70 14.67–33.75 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.67 4.73–10.62 3.90–11.45 | 8.12 5.44–10.80 4.70–11.54 | 15.79 10.17–21.41 8.60–22.98 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.97 2.32–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 7.11 3.57–10.64 2.53–11.68 | 31% 15% 55% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.82 1.82–7.40 | 5.67 3.67–7.67 3.13–8.20 | 10.27 6.06–14.49 4.95–15.60 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 37.78 30.99–44.57 29.32–46.24 | 62.63 55.84–69.41 54.17–71.08 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 330 262–397 244–415 | 526 460–593 442–610 | 856 722–990 687–1025 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.07 60.04–68.10 58.75–69.39 | 77.52 73.20–81.85 71.89–83.16 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 13.97 11.14–16.81 10.38–17.57 | 10.49 7.55–13.44 6.80–14.19 | 24.47 18.68–30.25 17.18–31.75 | 73% 21% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.40 0.31–2.50 0.02–2.79 | 3.33 1.08–5.59 0.49–6.18 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.52–3.15 | 1.65 0.52–2.78 0.23–3.07 | 3.49 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 2.42 0.86–3.97 0.44–4.40 | 5.14 2.15–8.13 1.34–8.95 | 46% 18% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.