Championship·Regular Season - 44·
Championship·Regular Season - 44·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.182.90safe0.75–2.690.33–2.041.08–4.73safer0.50–2.940.10–2.260.60–5.21
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.133.758.88safe3.27–6.992.01–5.495.27–12.48safer2.78–7.481.54–5.964.32–13.44
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2010.2324.43safe10.28–18.136.67–13.7916.94–31.92safer9.18–19.225.71–14.7514.89–33.97
Shots in box
68%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.497.0516.55safe6.55–12.434.37–9.7410.92–22.17safer5.72–13.263.64–10.479.36–23.74
Blocked shots
67%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.232.606.83safe2.35–6.120.94–4.253.29–10.36safer1.81–6.660.45–4.742.26–11.40
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.9610.08safe3.91–8.331.96–5.965.87–14.29safer3.33–8.911.42–6.494.76–15.40
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction56.3844.99safe49.59–63.1738.21–51.78safer47.92–64.8436.54–53.45
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction475354829safe408–542288–421695–963safer390–560270–438660–998
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction70.8869.53safe66.85–74.9165.20–73.85safer65.56–76.2063.89–75.16
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4012.4922.88safe7.56–13.239.54–15.4317.10–28.67safer6.80–13.998.80–16.1815.60–30.17
Offsides
17%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.883.565.45safe0.72–3.042.47–4.663.19–7.70safer0.42–3.342.18–4.952.60–8.29
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.153.70safe0.50–2.601.02–3.281.52–5.88safer0.24–2.870.73–3.570.96–6.44
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.403.335.73safe0.96–3.841.78–4.892.74–8.73safer0.58–4.221.35–5.311.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.75–2.69 0.50–2.94 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.26 | 2.90 1.08–4.73 0.60–5.21 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.13 3.27–6.99 2.78–7.48 | 3.75 2.01–5.49 1.54–5.96 | 8.88 5.27–12.48 4.32–13.44 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.20 10.28–18.13 9.18–19.22 | 10.23 6.67–13.79 5.71–14.75 | 24.43 16.94–31.92 14.89–33.97 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.49 6.55–12.43 5.72–13.26 | 7.05 4.37–9.74 3.64–10.47 | 16.55 10.92–22.17 9.36–23.74 | 68% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.23 2.35–6.12 1.81–6.66 | 2.60 0.94–4.25 0.45–4.74 | 6.83 3.29–10.36 2.26–11.40 | 67% 20% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.91–8.33 3.33–8.91 | 3.96 1.96–5.96 1.42–6.49 | 10.08 5.87–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 56.38 49.59–63.17 47.92–64.84 | 44.99 38.21–51.78 36.54–53.45 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 475 408–542 390–560 | 354 288–421 270–438 | 829 695–963 660–998 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.88 66.85–74.91 65.56–76.20 | 69.53 65.20–73.85 63.89–75.16 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 10.40 7.56–13.23 6.80–13.99 | 12.49 9.54–15.43 8.80–16.18 | 22.88 17.10–28.67 15.60–30.17 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 3.56 2.47–4.66 2.18–4.95 | 5.45 3.19–7.70 2.60–8.29 | 17% 14% 69% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.96–6.44 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.96–3.84 0.58–4.22 | 3.33 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.31 | 5.73 2.74–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.