Predicted match statistics
Goals
64%
20%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.150.993.14safe1.18–3.120.13–1.841.32–4.96safer0.93–3.370.00–2.070.84–5.44
Shots on target
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.943.289.22safe4.08–7.801.54–5.035.62–12.83safer3.59–8.291.08–5.494.66–13.78
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction16.858.8525.70safe12.93–20.785.28–12.4118.21–33.19safer11.84–21.874.33–13.3716.16–35.24
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction11.176.0417.22safe8.23–14.123.36–8.7211.59–22.84safer7.40–14.952.62–9.4610.03–24.41
Blocked shots
78%
homeawaytotalprediction4.772.226.99safe2.89–6.660.56–3.873.46–10.53safer2.35–7.200.07–4.362.42–11.56
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.593.369.95safe4.38–8.801.36–5.365.73–14.16safer3.80–9.380.83–5.894.63–15.27
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.1642.12safe50.37–63.9535.34–48.91safer48.70–65.6233.67–50.58
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction534367901safe466–601301–434767–1035safer448–619283–451732–1070
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction75.8971.28safe71.86–79.9266.95–75.60safer70.57–81.2165.64–76.91
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5710.9322.50safe8.74–14.417.98–13.8716.72–28.29safer7.98–15.177.24–14.6215.22–29.79
Offsides
19%
15%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.823.285.09safe0.66–2.982.18–4.372.84–7.35safer0.36–3.281.89–4.662.25–7.93
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.123.82safe0.65–2.750.99–3.251.64–6.00safer0.39–3.020.70–3.541.08–6.55
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
17%
13%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.113.896.00safe0.67–3.542.34–5.453.01–8.99safer0.28–3.931.91–5.872.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.15 1.18–3.12 0.93–3.37 | 0.99 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 3.14 1.32–4.96 0.84–5.44 | 64% 20% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.94 4.08–7.80 3.59–8.29 | 3.28 1.54–5.03 1.08–5.49 | 9.22 5.62–12.83 4.66–13.78 | 76% 15% |
| Total shots | 16.85 12.93–20.78 11.84–21.87 | 8.85 5.28–12.41 4.33–13.37 | 25.70 18.21–33.19 16.16–35.24 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.17 8.23–14.12 7.40–14.95 | 6.04 3.36–8.72 2.62–9.46 | 17.22 11.59–22.84 10.03–24.41 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.77 2.89–6.66 2.35–7.20 | 2.22 0.56–3.87 0.07–4.36 | 6.99 3.46–10.53 2.42–11.56 | 78% |
| Corners | 6.59 4.38–8.80 3.80–9.38 | 3.36 1.36–5.36 0.83–5.89 | 9.95 5.73–14.16 4.63–15.27 | 81% |
| Possession % | 57.16 50.37–63.95 48.70–65.62 | 42.12 35.34–48.91 33.67–50.58 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 534 466–601 448–619 | 367 301–434 283–451 | 901 767–1035 732–1070 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.89 71.86–79.92 70.57–81.21 | 71.28 66.95–75.60 65.64–76.91 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 11.57 8.74–14.41 7.98–15.17 | 10.93 7.98–13.87 7.24–14.62 | 22.50 16.72–28.29 15.22–29.79 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.28 | 3.28 2.18–4.37 1.89–4.66 | 5.09 2.84–7.35 2.25–7.93 | 19% 15% 66% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.11 0.67–3.54 0.28–3.93 | 3.89 2.34–5.45 1.91–5.87 | 6.00 3.01–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 17% 13% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.