La Liga·Regular Season - 8·
La Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.702.94safe0.27–2.200.85–2.561.12–4.76safer0.02–2.460.62–2.790.64–5.24
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.124.889.00safe2.26–5.993.14–6.625.40–12.61safer1.77–6.482.67–7.094.44–13.56
Total shots
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0514.1527.20safe9.13–16.9810.59–17.7119.72–34.69safer8.04–18.079.63–18.6717.67–36.74
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction7.779.2216.98safe4.82–10.716.54–11.9011.36–22.61safer3.99–11.545.80–12.649.79–24.17
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.563.937.49safe1.68–5.442.28–5.583.96–11.03safer1.14–5.991.79–6.082.92–12.06
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.975.5410.51safe2.76–7.193.54–7.546.30–14.73safer2.19–7.763.01–8.075.19–15.83
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.2754.83safe38.48–52.0648.04–61.61safer36.81–53.7346.37–63.28
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction423497920safe356–490431–564786–1054safer337–508413–581751–1089
Pass accuracy %
15%
81%
homeawayprediction66.1773.58safe62.14–70.2069.25–77.90safer60.84–71.4967.95–79.21
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2011.3122.50safe8.36–14.038.36–14.2516.72–28.29safer7.60–14.797.61–15.0015.22–29.79
Offsides
58%
18%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.751.804.55safe1.59–3.910.71–2.892.30–6.81safer1.29–4.210.42–3.181.71–7.39
Yellow cards
42%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.974.07safe1.06–3.150.84–3.101.90–6.25safer0.79–3.420.55–3.391.34–6.81
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
47%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.825.95safe1.70–4.571.26–4.372.96–8.94safer1.31–4.960.84–4.802.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.20 0.02–2.46 | 1.70 0.85–2.56 0.62–2.79 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.64–5.24 | 28% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.12 2.26–5.99 1.77–6.48 | 4.88 3.14–6.62 2.67–7.09 | 9.00 5.40–12.61 4.44–13.56 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.05 9.13–16.98 8.04–18.07 | 14.15 10.59–17.71 9.63–18.67 | 27.20 19.72–34.69 17.67–36.74 | 38% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.77 4.82–10.71 3.99–11.54 | 9.22 6.54–11.90 5.80–12.64 | 16.98 11.36–22.61 9.79–24.17 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.44 1.14–5.99 | 3.93 2.28–5.58 1.79–6.08 | 7.49 3.96–11.03 2.92–12.06 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.76–7.19 2.19–7.76 | 5.54 3.54–7.54 3.01–8.07 | 10.51 6.30–14.73 5.19–15.83 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 45.27 38.48–52.06 36.81–53.73 | 54.83 48.04–61.61 46.37–63.28 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 337–508 | 497 431–564 413–581 | 920 786–1054 751–1089 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.17 62.14–70.20 60.84–71.49 | 73.58 69.25–77.90 67.95–79.21 | — | 15% 81% |
| Fouls | 11.20 8.36–14.03 7.60–14.79 | 11.31 8.36–14.25 7.61–15.00 | 22.50 16.72–28.29 15.22–29.79 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.75 1.59–3.91 1.29–4.21 | 1.80 0.71–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 4.55 2.30–6.81 1.71–7.39 | 58% 18% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.06–3.15 0.79–3.42 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 4.07 1.90–6.25 1.34–6.81 | 42% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.84–4.80 | 5.95 2.96–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 47% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.