Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.022.44safe0.45–2.390.17–1.880.62–4.26safer0.20–2.640.00–2.110.14–4.74
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.283.738.01safe2.41–6.141.99–5.474.40–11.61safer1.93–6.631.52–5.943.45–12.57
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9411.5224.46safe9.02–16.877.95–15.0816.97–31.95safer7.93–17.966.99–16.0414.92–34.00
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.166.5014.66safe5.22–11.103.82–9.189.04–20.28safer4.39–11.933.08–9.927.47–21.85
Blocked shots
43%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.373.336.70safe1.48–5.251.68–4.993.16–10.24safer0.94–5.791.19–5.482.13–11.27
Corners
46%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.479.16safe2.48–6.902.47–6.474.94–13.37safer1.90–7.481.93–7.003.84–14.48
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction47.3853.74safe40.59–54.1746.96–60.53safer38.92–55.8445.28–62.20
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction409468877safe342–476402–535744–1011safer324–495384–552708–1047
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction65.7771.87safe61.74–69.8067.55–76.20safer60.45–71.0966.24–77.51
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8114.2728.07safe10.97–16.6411.32–17.2122.29–33.86safer10.21–17.4010.58–17.9620.79–35.36
Offsides
52%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.363.36safe0.83–3.160.27–2.451.10–5.61safer0.53–3.460.00–2.740.51–6.20
Yellow cards
37%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.474.71safe1.19–3.291.34–3.602.54–6.89safer0.93–3.561.05–3.891.98–7.45
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.825.60safe1.34–4.211.27–4.382.61–8.59safer0.95–4.600.84–4.811.80–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.02 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.41–6.14 1.93–6.63 | 3.73 1.99–5.47 1.52–5.94 | 8.01 4.40–11.61 3.45–12.57 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.94 9.02–16.87 7.93–17.96 | 11.52 7.95–15.08 6.99–16.04 | 24.46 16.97–31.95 14.92–34.00 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.16 5.22–11.10 4.39–11.93 | 6.50 3.82–9.18 3.08–9.92 | 14.66 9.04–20.28 7.47–21.85 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 1.48–5.25 0.94–5.79 | 3.33 1.68–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 6.70 3.16–10.24 2.13–11.27 | 43% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.69 2.48–6.90 1.90–7.48 | 4.47 2.47–6.47 1.93–7.00 | 9.16 4.94–13.37 3.84–14.48 | 46% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 47.38 40.59–54.17 38.92–55.84 | 53.74 46.96–60.53 45.28–62.20 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 409 342–476 324–495 | 468 402–535 384–552 | 877 744–1011 708–1047 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.77 61.74–69.80 60.45–71.09 | 71.87 67.55–76.20 66.24–77.51 | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 13.81 10.97–16.64 10.21–17.40 | 14.27 11.32–17.21 10.58–17.96 | 28.07 22.29–33.86 20.79–35.36 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.83–3.16 0.53–3.46 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.36 1.10–5.61 0.51–6.20 | 52% 22% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.93–3.56 | 2.47 1.34–3.60 1.05–3.89 | 4.71 2.54–6.89 1.98–7.45 | 37% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.81 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.80–9.40 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.