La Liga·Regular Season - 14·
La Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.123.07safe0.99–2.930.26–1.971.25–4.90safer0.74–3.180.03–2.200.77–5.38
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.754.049.79safe3.89–7.612.29–5.786.18–13.39safer3.40–8.101.83–6.245.23–14.35
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9211.3828.30safe13.00–20.857.81–14.9420.81–35.78safer11.91–21.946.85–15.9018.76–37.84
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction10.907.2118.10safe7.96–13.844.52–9.8912.48–23.73safer7.13–14.673.79–10.6210.91–25.29
Blocked shots
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.312.898.20safe3.43–7.191.23–4.544.66–11.73safer2.89–7.740.74–5.033.63–12.77
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.654.3210.97safe4.44–8.862.32–6.326.75–15.18safer3.86–9.441.78–6.855.65–16.29
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.9541.01safe52.16–65.7434.22–47.79safer50.49–67.4132.55–49.47
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction560368928safe493–628301–434795–1062safer475–646284–452759–1098
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction72.8367.76safe68.80–76.8663.43–72.08safer67.51–78.1562.12–73.39
Fouls
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1513.5223.67safe7.31–12.9810.58–16.4717.89–29.45safer6.55–13.749.83–17.2216.38–30.96
Offsides
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.474.18safe0.54–2.861.38–3.571.92–6.43safer0.24–3.161.09–3.861.33–7.02
Yellow cards
20%
17%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.664.13safe0.42–2.521.54–3.791.95–6.31safer0.15–2.781.24–4.081.40–6.87
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.976.65safe1.24–4.122.41–5.523.65–9.64safer0.86–4.501.99–5.952.84–10.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 0.99–2.93 0.74–3.18 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 3.07 1.25–4.90 0.77–5.38 | 57% 22% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.75 3.89–7.61 3.40–8.10 | 4.04 2.29–5.78 1.83–6.24 | 9.79 6.18–13.39 5.23–14.35 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 16.92 13.00–20.85 11.91–21.94 | 11.38 7.81–14.94 6.85–15.90 | 28.30 20.81–35.78 18.76–37.84 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 10.90 7.96–13.84 7.13–14.67 | 7.21 4.52–9.89 3.79–10.62 | 18.10 12.48–23.73 10.91–25.29 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 5.31 3.43–7.19 2.89–7.74 | 2.89 1.23–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 8.20 4.66–11.73 3.63–12.77 | 75% 15% |
| Corners | 6.65 4.44–8.86 3.86–9.44 | 4.32 2.32–6.32 1.78–6.85 | 10.97 6.75–15.18 5.65–16.29 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 58.95 52.16–65.74 50.49–67.41 | 41.01 34.22–47.79 32.55–49.47 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 560 493–628 475–646 | 368 301–434 284–452 | 928 795–1062 759–1098 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.83 68.80–76.86 67.51–78.15 | 67.76 63.43–72.08 62.12–73.39 | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 10.15 7.31–12.98 6.55–13.74 | 13.52 10.58–16.47 9.83–17.22 | 23.67 17.89–29.45 16.38–30.96 | 21% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 2.47 1.38–3.57 1.09–3.86 | 4.18 1.92–6.43 1.33–7.02 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.52 0.15–2.78 | 2.66 1.54–3.79 1.24–4.08 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 20% 17% 63% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.12 0.86–4.50 | 3.97 2.41–5.52 1.99–5.95 | 6.65 3.65–9.64 2.84–10.45 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.