La Liga·Regular Season - 14·
La Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.782.843.62safe0.00–1.741.99–3.701.80–5.44safer0.00–2.001.76–3.931.32–5.92
Shots on target
91%
homeawaytotalprediction2.847.4810.32safe0.98–4.715.74–9.226.72–13.93safer0.49–5.205.27–9.695.76–14.88
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction8.3520.5428.89safe4.43–12.2816.98–24.1021.41–36.38safer3.34–13.3716.02–25.0619.36–38.43
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction5.0813.9719.06safe2.14–8.0311.29–16.6513.43–24.68safer1.31–8.8510.56–17.3911.87–26.25
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction1.935.287.21safe0.05–3.823.63–6.933.68–10.75safer0.00–4.363.13–7.422.64–11.78
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction3.146.699.83safe0.92–5.354.69–8.695.62–14.04safer0.35–5.934.16–9.224.51–15.15
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction27.4772.83safe20.68–34.2666.05–79.62safer19.01–35.9364.38–81.29
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction3107671077safe243–377700–833943–1211safer225–396683–851908–1246
Pass accuracy %
100%
homeawayprediction62.2687.02safe58.23–66.2982.69–91.34safer56.93–67.5881.38–92.65
Fouls
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction11.298.9520.24safe8.45–14.126.01–11.9014.46–26.02safer7.69–14.885.26–12.6512.96–27.53
Offsides
68%
14%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.045.67safe2.48–4.800.94–3.133.42–7.93safer2.18–5.100.65–3.422.83–8.52
Yellow cards
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.333.26safe0.87–2.970.21–2.461.08–5.43safer0.61–3.240.00–2.750.52–5.99
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
82%
homeawaytotalprediction4.862.006.86safe3.42–6.290.45–3.563.87–9.85safer3.03–6.680.02–3.983.05–10.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.78 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.00 | 2.84 1.99–3.70 1.76–3.93 | 3.62 1.80–5.44 1.32–5.92 | 80% |
| Shots on target | 2.84 0.98–4.71 0.49–5.20 | 7.48 5.74–9.22 5.27–9.69 | 10.32 6.72–13.93 5.76–14.88 | 91% |
| Total shots | 8.35 4.43–12.28 3.34–13.37 | 20.54 16.98–24.10 16.02–25.06 | 28.89 21.41–36.38 19.36–38.43 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 5.08 2.14–8.03 1.31–8.85 | 13.97 11.29–16.65 10.56–17.39 | 19.06 13.43–24.68 11.87–26.25 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 1.93 0.05–3.82 0.00–4.36 | 5.28 3.63–6.93 3.13–7.42 | 7.21 3.68–10.75 2.64–11.78 | 86% |
| Corners | 3.14 0.92–5.35 0.35–5.93 | 6.69 4.69–8.69 4.16–9.22 | 9.83 5.62–14.04 4.51–15.15 | 84% |
| Possession % | 27.47 20.68–34.26 19.01–35.93 | 72.83 66.05–79.62 64.38–81.29 | — | 100% |
| Passes | 310 243–377 225–396 | 767 700–833 683–851 | 1077 943–1211 908–1246 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.26 58.23–66.29 56.93–67.58 | 87.02 82.69–91.34 81.38–92.65 | — | 100% |
| Fouls | 11.29 8.45–14.12 7.69–14.88 | 8.95 6.01–11.90 5.26–12.65 | 20.24 14.46–26.02 12.96–27.53 | 66% 26% |
| Offsides | 3.64 2.48–4.80 2.18–5.10 | 2.04 0.94–3.13 0.65–3.42 | 5.67 3.42–7.93 2.83–8.52 | 68% 14% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 1.33 0.21–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 3.26 1.08–5.43 0.52–5.99 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 4.86 3.42–6.29 3.03–6.68 | 2.00 0.45–3.56 0.02–3.98 | 6.86 3.87–9.85 3.05–10.66 | 82% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+