La Liga·Regular Season - 14·
La Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.922.90safe0.01–1.951.07–2.781.08–4.72safer0.00–2.200.84–3.010.60–5.20
Shots on target
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.415.218.62safe1.55–5.283.46–6.955.01–12.23safer1.06–5.773.00–7.414.06–13.18
Total shots
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2412.9123.15safe6.31–14.169.35–16.4815.67–30.64safer5.22–15.258.39–17.4413.61–32.69
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.639.6515.28safe2.68–8.576.97–12.339.65–20.90safer1.85–9.406.23–13.078.09–22.47
Blocked shots
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.643.636.27safe0.76–4.531.97–5.282.74–9.81safer0.22–5.071.48–5.771.70–10.84
Corners
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.765.038.79safe1.55–5.973.03–7.034.57–13.00safer0.97–6.552.50–7.563.47–14.11
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.2851.53safe42.49–56.0744.75–58.32safer40.82–57.7443.07–59.99
Passes
40%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction465494959safe398–532427–560825–1093safer380–551410–578790–1128
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction65.8674.39safe61.83–69.8970.07–78.72safer60.54–71.1868.76–80.03
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2913.0425.32safe9.45–15.1210.09–15.9819.54–31.10safer8.69–15.889.34–16.7318.04–32.61
Offsides
14%
13%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction1.593.505.09safe0.43–2.752.41–4.592.84–7.35safer0.13–3.062.12–4.882.25–7.94
Yellow cards
41%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.444.88safe1.39–3.491.31–3.572.70–7.06safer1.12–3.761.02–3.862.14–7.61
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.130.29safe0.00–0.320.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.470.00–0.450.00–0.92
GK saves
55%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.585.95safe1.94–4.811.02–4.142.96–8.95safer1.55–5.200.60–4.562.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 1.92 1.07–2.78 0.84–3.01 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.41 1.55–5.28 1.06–5.77 | 5.21 3.46–6.95 3.00–7.41 | 8.62 5.01–12.23 4.06–13.18 | 22% 67% |
| Total shots | 10.24 6.31–14.16 5.22–15.25 | 12.91 9.35–16.48 8.39–17.44 | 23.15 15.67–30.64 13.61–32.69 | 25% 67% |
| Shots in box | 5.63 2.68–8.57 1.85–9.40 | 9.65 6.97–12.33 6.23–13.07 | 15.28 9.65–20.90 8.09–22.47 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 2.64 0.76–4.53 0.22–5.07 | 3.63 1.97–5.28 1.48–5.77 | 6.27 2.74–9.81 1.70–10.84 | 27% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 3.76 1.55–5.97 0.97–6.55 | 5.03 3.03–7.03 2.50–7.56 | 8.79 4.57–13.00 3.47–14.11 | 27% 60% |
| Possession % | 49.28 42.49–56.07 40.82–57.74 | 51.53 44.75–58.32 43.07–59.99 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 465 398–532 380–551 | 494 427–560 410–578 | 959 825–1093 790–1128 | 40% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.86 61.83–69.89 60.54–71.18 | 74.39 70.07–78.72 68.76–80.03 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.29 9.45–15.12 8.69–15.88 | 13.04 10.09–15.98 9.34–16.73 | 25.32 19.54–31.10 18.04–32.61 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.06 | 3.50 2.41–4.59 2.12–4.88 | 5.09 2.84–7.35 2.25–7.94 | 14% 13% 73% |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 1.39–3.49 1.12–3.76 | 2.44 1.31–3.57 1.02–3.86 | 4.88 2.70–7.06 2.14–7.61 | 41% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 77% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.94–4.81 1.55–5.20 | 2.58 1.02–4.14 0.60–4.56 | 5.95 2.96–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 55% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.