La Liga·Regular Season - 14·
La Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.372.90safe0.56–2.500.52–2.231.08–4.72safer0.31–2.750.29–2.460.60–5.20
Shots on target
53%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.784.018.80safe2.92–6.652.27–5.765.19–12.40safer2.43–7.141.81–6.224.24–13.36
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9211.1626.07safe10.99–18.847.59–14.7218.59–33.56safer9.90–19.936.63–15.6816.54–35.61
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.817.7516.56safe5.86–11.755.07–10.4310.93–22.18safer5.03–12.584.33–11.179.37–23.75
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.002.596.59safe2.12–5.890.93–4.243.06–10.13safer1.58–6.430.44–4.732.02–11.16
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.554.359.90safe3.34–7.772.35–6.355.69–14.12safer2.77–8.341.82–6.884.58–15.23
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.2150.65safe42.42–56.0043.87–57.44safer40.75–57.6742.20–59.11
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction447449895safe379–514382–515762–1029safer361–532365–533726–1065
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction69.8672.67safe65.83–73.8968.34–76.99safer64.54–75.1967.04–78.30
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2412.3424.58safe9.40–15.089.40–15.2918.80–30.37safer8.65–15.838.65–16.0417.30–31.87
Offsides
44%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.234.65safe1.25–3.581.14–3.332.39–6.90safer0.95–3.880.85–3.611.81–7.49
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.163.74safe0.53–2.631.03–3.291.56–5.92safer0.26–2.890.74–3.581.00–6.47
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.105.71safe1.17–4.041.55–4.662.71–8.70safer0.78–4.431.12–5.081.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.78 2.92–6.65 2.43–7.14 | 4.01 2.27–5.76 1.81–6.22 | 8.80 5.19–12.40 4.24–13.36 | 53% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.92 10.99–18.84 9.90–19.93 | 11.16 7.59–14.72 6.63–15.68 | 26.07 18.59–33.56 16.54–35.61 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.81 5.86–11.75 5.03–12.58 | 7.75 5.07–10.43 4.33–11.17 | 16.56 10.93–22.18 9.37–23.75 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.12–5.89 1.58–6.43 | 2.59 0.93–4.24 0.44–4.73 | 6.59 3.06–10.13 2.02–11.16 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.55 3.34–7.77 2.77–8.34 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.82–6.88 | 9.90 5.69–14.12 4.58–15.23 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 49.21 42.42–56.00 40.75–57.67 | 50.65 43.87–57.44 42.20–59.11 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 447 379–514 361–532 | 449 382–515 365–533 | 895 762–1029 726–1065 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.86 65.83–73.89 64.54–75.19 | 72.67 68.34–76.99 67.04–78.30 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 12.24 9.40–15.08 8.65–15.83 | 12.34 9.40–15.29 8.65–16.04 | 24.58 18.80–30.37 17.30–31.87 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.42 1.25–3.58 0.95–3.88 | 2.23 1.14–3.33 0.85–3.61 | 4.65 2.39–6.90 1.81–7.49 | 44% 19% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.89 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.47 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.