La Liga·Regular Season - 14·
La Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.182.62safe0.47–2.410.33–2.040.80–4.45safer0.22–2.660.10–2.260.32–4.93
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.878.25safe2.53–6.252.12–5.614.65–11.86safer2.04–6.741.66–6.083.69–12.82
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3311.6324.96safe9.40–17.258.07–15.2017.47–32.45safer8.31–18.347.11–16.1515.42–34.50
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction7.717.2915.00safe4.77–10.654.61–9.979.38–20.63safer3.94–11.483.87–10.717.81–22.19
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.673.146.81safe1.78–5.551.49–4.803.28–10.35safer1.24–6.091.00–5.292.24–11.38
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.439.76safe3.12–7.542.43–6.435.54–13.97safer2.54–8.121.89–6.964.44–15.08
Possession %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction56.8844.18safe50.09–63.6737.39–50.96safer48.42–65.3435.72–52.63
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction512369881safe445–579303–436747–1015safer426–597285–453712–1050
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction64.4066.51safe60.37–68.4362.19–70.84safer59.08–69.7260.88–72.15
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0711.9325.00safe10.23–15.918.99–14.8819.22–30.78safer9.48–16.668.24–15.6317.72–32.29
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.023.85safe0.67–2.990.93–3.111.59–6.10safer0.36–3.290.64–3.401.00–6.69
Yellow cards
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.164.13safe0.92–3.021.03–3.291.96–6.31safer0.66–3.290.74–3.581.40–6.87
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.825.50safe1.24–4.121.27–4.382.51–8.49safer0.86–4.500.84–4.801.70–9.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.26 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.39 2.53–6.25 2.04–6.74 | 3.87 2.12–5.61 1.66–6.08 | 8.25 4.65–11.86 3.69–12.82 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.33 9.40–17.25 8.31–18.34 | 11.63 8.07–15.20 7.11–16.15 | 24.96 17.47–32.45 15.42–34.50 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 7.71 4.77–10.65 3.94–11.48 | 7.29 4.61–9.97 3.87–10.71 | 15.00 9.38–20.63 7.81–22.19 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 1.78–5.55 1.24–6.09 | 3.14 1.49–4.80 1.00–5.29 | 6.81 3.28–10.35 2.24–11.38 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.12–7.54 2.54–8.12 | 4.43 2.43–6.43 1.89–6.96 | 9.76 5.54–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 56.88 50.09–63.67 48.42–65.34 | 44.18 37.39–50.96 35.72–52.63 | — | 76% 21% |
| Passes | 512 445–579 426–597 | 369 303–436 285–453 | 881 747–1015 712–1050 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.40 60.37–68.43 59.08–69.72 | 66.51 62.19–70.84 60.88–72.15 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 13.07 10.23–15.91 9.48–16.66 | 11.93 8.99–14.88 8.24–15.63 | 25.00 19.22–30.78 17.72–32.29 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.36–3.29 | 2.02 0.93–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 3.85 1.59–6.10 1.00–6.69 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 4.13 1.96–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.12 0.86–4.50 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 5.50 2.51–8.49 1.70–9.31 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+