La Liga·Regular Season - 15·
La Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.923.16safe0.27–2.211.06–2.771.33–4.98safer0.02–2.460.83–3.000.85–5.46
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.425.499.91safe2.56–6.293.75–7.236.31–13.52safer2.07–6.783.28–7.705.35–14.47
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6014.0827.68safe9.67–17.5210.52–17.6520.19–35.17safer8.58–18.619.56–18.6118.14–37.22
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4210.0618.48safe5.47–11.367.38–12.7412.85–24.10safer4.64–12.196.64–13.4811.29–25.67
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.013.757.76safe2.13–5.892.10–5.404.23–11.30safer1.59–6.441.61–5.903.19–12.33
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.534.9910.51safe3.32–7.742.99–6.996.30–14.73safer2.74–8.322.45–7.525.19–15.84
Possession %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction47.2152.95safe40.41–54.0046.16–59.73safer38.75–55.6744.49–61.40
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction465513977safe398–532446–579844–1111safer379–550429–597808–1147
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction70.0775.46safe66.04–74.1071.14–79.79safer64.75–75.3969.83–81.10
Fouls
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6910.3223.02safe9.86–15.537.38–13.2717.23–28.80safer9.10–16.296.63–14.0215.73–30.30
Offsides
16%
15%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.593.184.76safe0.43–2.752.08–4.272.51–7.02safer0.13–3.051.79–4.561.92–7.61
Yellow cards
50%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.431.904.33safe1.38–3.480.77–3.032.16–6.51safer1.12–3.750.48–3.321.60–7.07
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.070.19safe0.00–0.290.00–0.250.00–0.54safer0.00–0.440.00–0.390.00–0.82
GK saves
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.703.186.88safe2.27–5.141.62–4.743.89–9.87safer1.88–5.531.20–5.163.08–10.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.92 1.06–2.77 0.83–3.00 | 3.16 1.33–4.98 0.85–5.46 | 25% 22% 53% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.29 2.07–6.78 | 5.49 3.75–7.23 3.28–7.70 | 9.91 6.31–13.52 5.35–14.47 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 13.60 9.67–17.52 8.58–18.61 | 14.08 10.52–17.65 9.56–18.61 | 27.68 20.19–35.17 18.14–37.22 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.42 5.47–11.36 4.64–12.19 | 10.06 7.38–12.74 6.64–13.48 | 18.48 12.85–24.10 11.29–25.67 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 4.01 2.13–5.89 1.59–6.44 | 3.75 2.10–5.40 1.61–5.90 | 7.76 4.23–11.30 3.19–12.33 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.32–7.74 2.74–8.32 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.45–7.52 | 10.51 6.30–14.73 5.19–15.84 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.21 40.41–54.00 38.75–55.67 | 52.95 46.16–59.73 44.49–61.40 | — | 35% 61% |
| Passes | 465 398–532 379–550 | 513 446–579 429–597 | 977 844–1111 808–1147 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.07 66.04–74.10 64.75–75.39 | 75.46 71.14–79.79 69.83–81.10 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.69 9.86–15.53 9.10–16.29 | 10.32 7.38–13.27 6.63–14.02 | 23.02 17.23–28.80 15.73–30.30 | 65% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 3.18 2.08–4.27 1.79–4.56 | 4.76 2.51–7.02 1.92–7.61 | 16% 15% 69% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.48 1.12–3.75 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 4.33 2.16–6.51 1.60–7.07 | 50% 19% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.70 2.27–5.14 1.88–5.53 | 3.18 1.62–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.88 3.89–9.87 3.08–10.69 | 50% 15% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.