La Liga·Regular Season - 15·
La Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.012.77safe0.79–2.730.16–1.870.95–4.60safer0.54–2.980.00–2.100.47–5.08
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.709.41safe3.85–7.571.96–5.455.81–13.02safer3.36–8.061.50–5.914.85–13.97
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0310.0726.10safe12.11–19.966.51–13.6318.61–33.59safer11.02–21.055.55–14.5916.56–35.64
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction11.596.2617.85safe8.65–14.543.58–8.9412.23–23.48safer7.82–15.372.84–9.6810.66–25.04
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.077.36safe2.41–6.171.42–4.733.83–10.90safer1.87–6.720.93–5.222.79–11.93
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.133.9310.06safe3.92–8.341.93–5.935.84–14.27safer3.34–8.921.39–6.464.74–15.38
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.8349.28safe44.04–57.6242.49–56.06safer42.37–59.2940.82–57.73
Passes
59%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction514485999safe446–581419–552865–1133safer428–599401–569830–1168
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction74.0174.06safe69.98–78.0469.73–78.38safer68.69–79.3368.42–79.69
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4210.2121.62safe8.58–14.257.26–13.1515.84–27.41safer7.82–15.016.51–13.9014.34–28.91
Offsides
72%
14%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.061.354.41safe1.90–4.220.25–2.442.16–6.66safer1.60–4.530.00–2.731.57–7.25
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.913.82safe0.85–2.950.79–3.041.64–6.00safer0.59–3.220.49–3.331.08–6.55
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.896.35safe1.02–3.892.34–5.453.36–9.34safer0.63–4.281.91–5.882.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.01 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.08 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.57 3.36–8.06 | 3.70 1.96–5.45 1.50–5.91 | 9.41 5.81–13.02 4.85–13.97 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 16.03 12.11–19.96 11.02–21.05 | 10.07 6.51–13.63 5.55–14.59 | 26.10 18.61–33.59 16.56–35.64 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 11.59 8.65–14.54 7.82–15.37 | 6.26 3.58–8.94 2.84–9.68 | 17.85 12.23–23.48 10.66–25.04 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.41–6.17 1.87–6.72 | 3.07 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 7.36 3.83–10.90 2.79–11.93 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 6.13 3.92–8.34 3.34–8.92 | 3.93 1.93–5.93 1.39–6.46 | 10.06 5.84–14.27 4.74–15.38 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 50.83 44.04–57.62 42.37–59.29 | 49.28 42.49–56.06 40.82–57.73 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 514 446–581 428–599 | 485 419–552 401–569 | 999 865–1133 830–1168 | 59% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.01 69.98–78.04 68.69–79.33 | 74.06 69.73–78.38 68.42–79.69 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.58–14.25 7.82–15.01 | 10.21 7.26–13.15 6.51–13.90 | 21.62 15.84–27.41 14.34–28.91 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 3.06 1.90–4.22 1.60–4.53 | 1.35 0.25–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 4.41 2.16–6.66 1.57–7.25 | 72% 14% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 1.91 0.79–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 3.89 2.34–5.45 1.91–5.88 | 6.35 3.36–9.34 2.55–10.16 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.