La Liga·Regular Season - 15·
La Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.452.79safe0.37–2.310.59–2.300.97–4.61safer0.12–2.560.37–2.530.49–5.09
Shots on target
34%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.929.14safe2.36–6.083.18–6.665.54–12.75safer1.87–6.572.71–7.134.58–13.70
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8014.3626.17safe7.88–15.7310.80–17.9318.68–33.65safer6.79–16.829.84–18.8816.63–35.71
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction7.709.2616.96safe4.76–10.646.58–11.9411.33–22.58safer3.93–11.475.84–12.689.77–24.15
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.293.797.08safe1.40–5.172.14–5.453.54–10.61safer0.86–5.711.65–5.942.51–11.65
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.795.2710.06safe2.57–7.003.27–7.275.85–14.27safer2.00–7.582.74–7.814.74–15.38
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction48.3852.43safe41.59–55.1745.65–59.22safer39.92–56.8443.98–60.89
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction471479949safe404–538412–545816–1083safer385–556395–563780–1119
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction67.6974.69safe63.66–71.7270.36–79.01safer62.37–73.0169.05–80.32
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7612.9525.71safe9.92–15.6010.00–15.8919.92–31.49safer9.17–16.359.25–16.6418.42–32.99
Offsides
23%
18%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.574.14safe0.42–2.741.47–3.661.89–6.39safer0.11–3.041.18–3.951.30–6.98
Yellow cards
41%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.174.38safe1.16–3.251.04–3.302.20–6.56safer0.89–3.520.75–3.591.64–7.11
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.896.11safe1.78–4.651.34–4.453.12–9.10safer1.39–5.040.91–4.882.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.45 0.59–2.30 0.37–2.53 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.22 2.36–6.08 1.87–6.57 | 4.92 3.18–6.66 2.71–7.13 | 9.14 5.54–12.75 4.58–13.70 | 34% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 11.80 7.88–15.73 6.79–16.82 | 14.36 10.80–17.93 9.84–18.88 | 26.17 18.68–33.65 16.63–35.71 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.70 4.76–10.64 3.93–11.47 | 9.26 6.58–11.94 5.84–12.68 | 16.96 11.33–22.58 9.77–24.15 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.29 1.40–5.17 0.86–5.71 | 3.79 2.14–5.45 1.65–5.94 | 7.08 3.54–10.61 2.51–11.65 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 4.79 2.57–7.00 2.00–7.58 | 5.27 3.27–7.27 2.74–7.81 | 10.06 5.85–14.27 4.74–15.38 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 48.38 41.59–55.17 39.92–56.84 | 52.43 45.65–59.22 43.98–60.89 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 471 404–538 385–556 | 479 412–545 395–563 | 949 816–1083 780–1119 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.69 63.66–71.72 62.37–73.01 | 74.69 70.36–79.01 69.05–80.32 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.76 9.92–15.60 9.17–16.35 | 12.95 10.00–15.89 9.25–16.64 | 25.71 19.92–31.49 18.42–32.99 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.11–3.04 | 2.57 1.47–3.66 1.18–3.95 | 4.14 1.89–6.39 1.30–6.98 | 23% 18% 59% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.16–3.25 0.89–3.52 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 4.38 2.20–6.56 1.64–7.11 | 41% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 2.89 1.34–4.45 0.91–4.88 | 6.11 3.12–9.10 2.30–9.91 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+