La Liga·Regular Season - 15·
La Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.132.85safe0.75–2.690.28–1.991.03–4.67safer0.50–2.940.05–2.220.55–5.15
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.473.999.47safe3.61–7.342.25–5.735.86–13.07safer3.12–7.831.78–6.204.90–14.03
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3011.8228.12safe12.38–20.238.26–15.3920.64–35.61safer11.29–21.327.30–16.3418.59–37.66
Shots in box
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.457.7718.22safe7.51–13.405.09–10.4512.60–23.85safer6.68–14.234.35–11.1911.03–25.41
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.027.42safe2.53–6.291.36–4.673.89–10.96safer1.98–6.830.87–5.162.85–11.99
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction6.054.5410.59safe3.84–8.272.54–6.546.38–14.80safer3.27–8.842.01–7.075.27–15.91
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.5544.50safe48.76–62.3437.71–51.28safer47.09–64.0136.04–52.95
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction504395899safe437–571328–461765–1032safer418–589311–479729–1068
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction71.1968.85safe67.16–75.2264.53–73.18safer65.87–76.5163.22–74.49
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2411.5723.81safe9.41–15.088.62–14.5118.03–29.59safer8.65–15.847.87–15.2616.52–31.10
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.683.86safe1.02–3.340.59–2.771.60–6.11safer0.72–3.640.30–3.061.01–6.70
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.903.93safe0.98–3.080.77–3.031.75–6.11safer0.71–3.350.48–3.321.20–6.67
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
28%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.656.38safe1.29–4.162.10–5.213.39–9.37safer0.90–4.551.67–5.632.58–10.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.75–2.69 0.50–2.94 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 51% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.47 3.61–7.34 3.12–7.83 | 3.99 2.25–5.73 1.78–6.20 | 9.47 5.86–13.07 4.90–14.03 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.30 12.38–20.23 11.29–21.32 | 11.82 8.26–15.39 7.30–16.34 | 28.12 20.64–35.61 18.59–37.66 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.45 7.51–13.40 6.68–14.23 | 7.77 5.09–10.45 4.35–11.19 | 18.22 12.60–23.85 11.03–25.41 | 70% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.53–6.29 1.98–6.83 | 3.02 1.36–4.67 0.87–5.16 | 7.42 3.89–10.96 2.85–11.99 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 6.05 3.84–8.27 3.27–8.84 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.07 | 10.59 6.38–14.80 5.27–15.91 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.55 48.76–62.34 47.09–64.01 | 44.50 37.71–51.28 36.04–52.95 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 504 437–571 418–589 | 395 328–461 311–479 | 899 765–1032 729–1068 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.19 67.16–75.22 65.87–76.51 | 68.85 64.53–73.18 63.22–74.49 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.24 9.41–15.08 8.65–15.84 | 11.57 8.62–14.51 7.87–15.26 | 23.81 18.03–29.59 16.52–31.10 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.64 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 3.86 1.60–6.11 1.01–6.70 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.35 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.93 1.75–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 3.65 2.10–5.21 1.67–5.63 | 6.38 3.39–9.37 2.58–10.19 | 28% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.