La Liga·Regular Season - 15·
La Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.112.96safe0.88–2.810.26–1.971.13–4.78safer0.62–3.060.03–2.200.65–5.26
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.893.899.78safe4.03–7.752.15–5.636.18–13.39safer3.54–8.241.68–6.105.22–14.34
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction17.3211.0428.36safe13.39–21.247.48–14.6020.87–35.84safer12.30–22.336.52–15.5618.82–37.89
Shots in box
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction11.447.1918.63safe8.50–14.384.51–9.8713.00–24.25safer7.67–15.213.77–10.6111.44–25.82
Blocked shots
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.593.638.22safe2.71–6.471.98–5.294.69–11.76safer2.17–7.021.49–5.783.65–12.79
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.544.0810.62safe4.33–8.752.08–6.086.41–14.84safer3.75–9.331.55–6.625.30–15.94
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction56.7342.81safe49.94–63.5236.02–49.59safer48.27–65.1934.35–51.27
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction553380934safe486–621314–447800–1067safer468–639296–464764–1103
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction71.8668.91safe67.83–75.8964.59–73.23safer66.53–77.1863.28–74.54
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7112.5724.28safe8.87–14.559.63–15.5218.50–30.06safer8.11–15.308.88–16.2717.00–31.57
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.393.51safe0.96–3.280.29–2.481.25–5.76safer0.66–3.580.01–2.770.66–6.35
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.194.00safe0.76–2.861.06–3.321.82–6.18safer0.50–3.130.77–3.611.27–6.74
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
26%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.736.35safe1.18–4.052.18–5.293.36–9.34safer0.79–4.441.75–5.722.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.88–2.81 0.62–3.06 | 1.11 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.96 1.13–4.78 0.65–5.26 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.89 4.03–7.75 3.54–8.24 | 3.89 2.15–5.63 1.68–6.10 | 9.78 6.18–13.39 5.22–14.34 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 17.32 13.39–21.24 12.30–22.33 | 11.04 7.48–14.60 6.52–15.56 | 28.36 20.87–35.84 18.82–37.89 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 11.44 8.50–14.38 7.67–15.21 | 7.19 4.51–9.87 3.77–10.61 | 18.63 13.00–24.25 11.44–25.82 | 81% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 2.71–6.47 2.17–7.02 | 3.63 1.98–5.29 1.49–5.78 | 8.22 4.69–11.76 3.65–12.79 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Corners | 6.54 4.33–8.75 3.75–9.33 | 4.08 2.08–6.08 1.55–6.62 | 10.62 6.41–14.84 5.30–15.94 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 56.73 49.94–63.52 48.27–65.19 | 42.81 36.02–49.59 34.35–51.27 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 553 486–621 468–639 | 380 314–447 296–464 | 934 800–1067 764–1103 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.86 67.83–75.89 66.53–77.18 | 68.91 64.59–73.23 63.28–74.54 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.87–14.55 8.11–15.30 | 12.57 9.63–15.52 8.88–16.27 | 24.28 18.50–30.06 17.00–31.57 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.96–3.28 0.66–3.58 | 1.39 0.29–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.51 1.25–5.76 0.66–6.35 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.00 1.82–6.18 1.27–6.74 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.73 2.18–5.29 1.75–5.72 | 6.35 3.36–9.34 2.54–10.15 | 26% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.