La Liga·Regular Season - 16·
La Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
24%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.692.75safe0.09–2.030.83–2.540.93–4.57safer0.00–2.280.61–2.770.45–5.05
Shots on target
26%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.655.028.68safe1.79–5.523.28–6.765.07–12.28safer1.30–6.012.81–7.234.12–13.24
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3414.1925.54safe7.42–15.2710.63–17.7618.05–33.02safer6.33–16.369.67–18.7216.00–35.07
Shots in box
22%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction6.749.2816.03safe3.80–9.696.60–11.9610.40–21.65safer2.97–10.525.86–12.708.84–23.22
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.997.04safe1.16–4.932.34–5.653.50–10.57safer0.62–5.471.85–6.142.47–11.61
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.505.209.70safe2.29–6.713.20–7.205.49–13.92safer1.71–7.292.67–7.734.38–15.02
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction45.9154.44safe39.11–52.7047.66–61.23safer37.45–54.3745.99–62.90
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction450527978safe383–518461–594844–1111safer365–536443–611808–1147
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction68.4276.26safe64.39–72.4571.93–80.58safer63.10–73.7570.62–81.89
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1211.6822.80safe8.28–13.968.73–14.6217.01–28.58safer7.52–14.717.98–15.3715.51–30.08
Offsides
61%
18%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.721.634.35safe1.56–3.880.54–2.722.09–6.60safer1.26–4.180.25–3.011.50–7.19
Yellow cards
39%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.843.66safe0.77–2.870.71–2.971.48–5.84safer0.50–3.130.42–3.260.92–6.39
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.232.545.76safe1.79–4.660.98–4.092.77–8.76safer1.40–5.050.55–4.521.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.09–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 1.69 0.83–2.54 0.61–2.77 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 24% 24% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.65 1.79–5.52 1.30–6.01 | 5.02 3.28–6.76 2.81–7.23 | 8.68 5.07–12.28 4.12–13.24 | 26% 61% |
| Total shots | 11.34 7.42–15.27 6.33–16.36 | 14.19 10.63–17.76 9.67–18.72 | 25.54 18.05–33.02 16.00–35.07 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 6.74 3.80–9.69 2.97–10.52 | 9.28 6.60–11.96 5.86–12.70 | 16.03 10.40–21.65 8.84–23.22 | 22% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 3.04 1.16–4.93 0.62–5.47 | 3.99 2.34–5.65 1.85–6.14 | 7.04 3.50–10.57 2.47–11.61 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.50 2.29–6.71 1.71–7.29 | 5.20 3.20–7.20 2.67–7.73 | 9.70 5.49–13.92 4.38–15.02 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 45.91 39.11–52.70 37.45–54.37 | 54.44 47.66–61.23 45.99–62.90 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 450 383–518 365–536 | 527 461–594 443–611 | 978 844–1111 808–1147 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.42 64.39–72.45 63.10–73.75 | 76.26 71.93–80.58 70.62–81.89 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 11.12 8.28–13.96 7.52–14.71 | 11.68 8.73–14.62 7.98–15.37 | 22.80 17.01–28.58 15.51–30.08 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.72 1.56–3.88 1.26–4.18 | 1.63 0.54–2.72 0.25–3.01 | 4.35 2.09–6.60 1.50–7.19 | 61% 18% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.50–3.13 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.92–6.39 | 39% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.23 1.79–4.66 1.40–5.05 | 2.54 0.98–4.09 0.55–4.52 | 5.76 2.77–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 53% 16% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+