La Liga·Regular Season - 16·
La Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
27%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.282.46safe0.21–2.150.43–2.140.64–4.28safer0.00–2.400.20–2.360.16–4.76
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.318.36safe2.19–5.922.56–6.054.75–11.96safer1.70–6.402.10–6.513.80–12.92
Total shots
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4911.7025.19safe9.56–17.418.14–15.2717.70–32.68safer8.47–18.507.18–16.2315.65–34.73
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction8.087.3715.45safe5.13–11.024.69–10.059.82–21.07safer4.30–11.853.95–10.798.25–22.64
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.142.917.05safe2.26–6.021.26–4.563.51–10.59safer1.71–6.570.77–5.062.48–11.62
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.484.279.75safe3.27–7.692.27–6.275.54–13.97safer2.69–8.271.74–6.814.43–15.07
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.9652.75safe41.17–54.7545.97–59.54safer39.50–56.4244.30–61.21
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction423444867safe356–490378–511733–1001safer337–508360–528698–1036
Pass accuracy %
24%
71%
homeawayprediction65.7970.66safe61.76–69.8266.34–74.98safer60.47–71.1165.03–76.29
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0213.1726.20safe10.18–15.8610.23–16.1220.41–31.98safer9.43–16.619.48–16.8718.91–33.48
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.513.07safe0.41–2.730.41–2.600.82–5.33safer0.10–3.030.13–2.890.23–5.92
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.414.40safe0.95–3.051.28–3.532.23–6.58safer0.68–3.310.98–3.831.67–7.14
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.842.995.83safe1.40–4.271.44–4.552.84–8.82safer1.01–4.661.01–4.972.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.36 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 34% 27% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.92 1.70–6.40 | 4.31 2.56–6.05 2.10–6.51 | 8.36 4.75–11.96 3.80–12.92 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.49 9.56–17.41 8.47–18.50 | 11.70 8.14–15.27 7.18–16.23 | 25.19 17.70–32.68 15.65–34.73 | 60% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.08 5.13–11.02 4.30–11.85 | 7.37 4.69–10.05 3.95–10.79 | 15.45 9.82–21.07 8.25–22.64 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 4.14 2.26–6.02 1.71–6.57 | 2.91 1.26–4.56 0.77–5.06 | 7.05 3.51–10.59 2.48–11.62 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.69 2.69–8.27 | 4.27 2.27–6.27 1.74–6.81 | 9.75 5.54–13.97 4.43–15.07 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 47.96 41.17–54.75 39.50–56.42 | 52.75 45.97–59.54 44.30–61.21 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 337–508 | 444 378–511 360–528 | 867 733–1001 698–1036 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.79 61.76–69.82 60.47–71.11 | 70.66 66.34–74.98 65.03–76.29 | — | 24% 71% |
| Fouls | 13.02 10.18–15.86 9.43–16.61 | 13.17 10.23–16.12 9.48–16.87 | 26.20 20.41–31.98 18.91–33.48 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.10–3.03 | 1.51 0.41–2.60 0.13–2.89 | 3.07 0.82–5.33 0.23–5.92 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.31 | 2.41 1.28–3.53 0.98–3.83 | 4.40 2.23–6.58 1.67–7.14 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 2.99 1.44–4.55 1.01–4.97 | 5.83 2.84–8.82 2.03–9.64 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.