La Liga·Regular Season - 16·
La Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.082.60safe0.55–2.490.23–1.940.78–4.42safer0.30–2.740.00–2.160.30–4.90
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.193.638.82safe3.33–7.051.89–5.375.21–12.42safer2.84–7.541.42–5.844.26–13.38
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8111.2227.03safe11.88–19.737.66–14.7919.55–34.52safer10.79–20.836.70–15.7517.49–36.57
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.547.4116.94safe6.59–12.484.72–10.0911.32–22.56safer5.76–13.313.99–10.829.75–24.13
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.652.967.61safe2.77–6.531.31–4.624.07–11.15safer2.22–7.070.82–5.113.04–12.18
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.184.0710.25safe3.97–8.392.07–6.076.03–14.46safer3.39–8.971.53–6.604.93–15.57
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.0840.72safe52.29–65.8733.94–47.51safer50.62–67.5432.27–49.18
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction524331855safe457–591265–397721–989safer439–610247–415686–1025
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction65.7864.76safe61.75–69.8160.43–69.08safer60.45–71.1059.12–70.39
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9713.3025.27safe9.13–14.8110.36–16.2519.49–31.05safer8.38–15.569.61–16.9917.98–32.56
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.753.36safe0.45–2.770.66–2.841.11–5.62safer0.15–3.080.37–3.130.52–6.21
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.344.01safe0.62–2.721.21–3.471.83–6.19safer0.35–2.980.92–3.761.27–6.74
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.84
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.405.90safe1.07–3.941.84–4.952.91–8.90safer0.68–4.331.42–5.382.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.33–7.05 2.84–7.54 | 3.63 1.89–5.37 1.42–5.84 | 8.82 5.21–12.42 4.26–13.38 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.81 11.88–19.73 10.79–20.83 | 11.22 7.66–14.79 6.70–15.75 | 27.03 19.55–34.52 17.49–36.57 | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.54 6.59–12.48 5.76–13.31 | 7.41 4.72–10.09 3.99–10.82 | 16.94 11.32–22.56 9.75–24.13 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.53 2.22–7.07 | 2.96 1.31–4.62 0.82–5.11 | 7.61 4.07–11.15 3.04–12.18 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 6.18 3.97–8.39 3.39–8.97 | 4.07 2.07–6.07 1.53–6.60 | 10.25 6.03–14.46 4.93–15.57 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 59.08 52.29–65.87 50.62–67.54 | 40.72 33.94–47.51 32.27–49.18 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 524 457–591 439–610 | 331 265–397 247–415 | 855 721–989 686–1025 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.78 61.75–69.81 60.45–71.10 | 64.76 60.43–69.08 59.12–70.39 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.13–14.81 8.38–15.56 | 13.30 10.36–16.25 9.61–16.99 | 25.27 19.49–31.05 17.98–32.56 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.08 | 1.75 0.66–2.84 0.37–3.13 | 3.36 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.35–2.98 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.01 1.83–6.19 1.27–6.74 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.07–3.94 0.68–4.33 | 3.40 1.84–4.95 1.42–5.38 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.