La Liga·Regular Season - 16·
La Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.740.992.73safe0.77–2.700.14–1.850.91–4.55safer0.52–2.960.00–2.080.43–5.03
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.213.839.05safe3.35–7.082.09–5.585.44–12.65safer2.86–7.571.63–6.044.49–13.61
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5012.0428.54safe12.58–20.428.48–15.6021.05–36.03safer11.48–21.527.52–16.5619.00–38.08
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.647.5318.17safe7.70–13.594.85–10.2112.55–23.79safer6.87–14.424.11–10.9510.98–25.36
Blocked shots
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.578.42safe2.97–6.731.92–5.224.89–11.96safer2.43–7.281.43–5.723.85–12.99
Corners
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.884.0910.97safe4.66–9.092.09–6.096.76–15.18safer4.09–9.661.56–6.635.65–16.29
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.2941.61safe50.50–64.0834.82–48.39safer48.83–65.7533.15–50.06
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction536373909safe469–603307–439775–1042safer450–621289–457739–1078
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction73.8168.07safe69.78–77.8463.74–72.39safer68.49–79.1362.43–73.70
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3013.3024.60safe8.47–14.1410.36–16.2518.82–30.39safer7.71–14.909.61–17.0017.32–31.89
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.131.393.52safe0.97–3.290.30–2.481.26–5.77safer0.67–3.590.01–2.770.68–6.36
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.444.14safe0.66–2.761.31–3.571.97–6.32safer0.39–3.021.02–3.861.41–6.88
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.576.06safe1.06–3.932.02–5.133.07–9.06safer0.67–4.321.59–5.552.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.70 0.52–2.96 | 0.99 0.14–1.85 0.00–2.08 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 55% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.21 3.35–7.08 2.86–7.57 | 3.83 2.09–5.58 1.63–6.04 | 9.05 5.44–12.65 4.49–13.61 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.50 12.58–20.42 11.48–21.52 | 12.04 8.48–15.60 7.52–16.56 | 28.54 21.05–36.03 19.00–38.08 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.64 7.70–13.59 6.87–14.42 | 7.53 4.85–10.21 4.11–10.95 | 18.17 12.55–23.79 10.98–25.36 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 2.97–6.73 2.43–7.28 | 3.57 1.92–5.22 1.43–5.72 | 8.42 4.89–11.96 3.85–12.99 | 60% 27% |
| Corners | 6.88 4.66–9.09 4.09–9.66 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.56–6.63 | 10.97 6.76–15.18 5.65–16.29 | 76% 16% |
| Possession % | 57.29 50.50–64.08 48.83–65.75 | 41.61 34.82–48.39 33.15–50.06 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 536 469–603 450–621 | 373 307–439 289–457 | 909 775–1042 739–1078 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.81 69.78–77.84 68.49–79.13 | 68.07 63.74–72.39 62.43–73.70 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.30 8.47–14.14 7.71–14.90 | 13.30 10.36–16.25 9.61–17.00 | 24.60 18.82–30.39 17.32–31.89 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 2.13 0.97–3.29 0.67–3.59 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.68–6.36 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.02 | 2.44 1.31–3.57 1.02–3.86 | 4.14 1.97–6.32 1.41–6.88 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.49 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.57 2.02–5.13 1.59–5.55 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 26% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+