La Liga·Regular Season - 17·
La Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.332.74safe0.45–2.380.47–2.180.92–4.57safer0.20–2.630.25–2.410.44–5.05
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.629.35safe2.87–6.602.87–6.365.74–12.95safer2.38–7.092.41–6.824.79–13.91
Total shots
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6213.1826.79safe9.69–17.549.61–16.7419.31–34.28safer8.60–18.638.65–17.7017.26–36.33
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.308.3117.61safe6.36–12.255.63–10.9911.99–23.24safer5.53–13.084.89–11.7310.42–24.80
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.783.317.09safe1.89–5.661.66–4.973.55–10.62safer1.35–6.201.17–5.462.52–11.66
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.4910.19safe3.48–7.912.49–6.495.97–14.40safer2.91–8.481.96–7.024.86–15.51
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction47.1153.04safe40.32–53.9146.25–59.82safer38.65–55.5744.58–61.49
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction456503959safe389–523436–569825–1093safer371–541419–587790–1128
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction69.9774.93safe65.94–74.0070.61–79.25safer64.65–75.2969.30–80.56
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1210.9823.10safe9.28–14.968.03–13.9217.31–28.88safer8.52–15.717.29–14.6715.81–30.38
Offsides
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.612.625.23safe1.45–3.771.53–3.722.98–7.48safer1.15–4.071.24–4.012.39–8.07
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.914.13safe1.17–3.270.78–3.031.95–6.30safer0.91–3.540.49–3.331.39–6.86
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.18safe0.00–0.270.00–0.260.00–0.53safer0.00–0.420.00–0.390.00–0.81
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.276.47safe1.77–4.641.71–4.823.48–9.46safer1.38–5.031.29–5.252.67–10.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.38 0.20–2.63 | 1.33 0.47–2.18 0.25–2.41 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.60 2.38–7.09 | 4.62 2.87–6.36 2.41–6.82 | 9.35 5.74–12.95 4.79–13.91 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.62 9.69–17.54 8.60–18.63 | 13.18 9.61–16.74 8.65–17.70 | 26.79 19.31–34.28 17.26–36.33 | 50% 43% |
| Shots in box | 9.30 6.36–12.25 5.53–13.08 | 8.31 5.63–10.99 4.89–11.73 | 17.61 11.99–23.24 10.42–24.80 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 1.89–5.66 1.35–6.20 | 3.31 1.66–4.97 1.17–5.46 | 7.09 3.55–10.62 2.52–11.66 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.48 | 4.49 2.49–6.49 1.96–7.02 | 10.19 5.97–14.40 4.86–15.51 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 47.11 40.32–53.91 38.65–55.57 | 53.04 46.25–59.82 44.58–61.49 | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 456 389–523 371–541 | 503 436–569 419–587 | 959 825–1093 790–1128 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.97 65.94–74.00 64.65–75.29 | 74.93 70.61–79.25 69.30–80.56 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 12.12 9.28–14.96 8.52–15.71 | 10.98 8.03–13.92 7.29–14.67 | 23.10 17.31–28.88 15.81–30.38 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.61 1.45–3.77 1.15–4.07 | 2.62 1.53–3.72 1.24–4.01 | 5.23 2.98–7.48 2.39–8.07 | 41% 18% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.27 0.91–3.54 | 1.91 0.78–3.03 0.49–3.33 | 4.13 1.95–6.30 1.39–6.86 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.20 1.77–4.64 1.38–5.03 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.29–5.25 | 6.47 3.48–9.46 2.67–10.28 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.