La Liga·Regular Season - 17·
La Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
25%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.602.56safe0.00–1.930.74–2.450.73–4.38safer0.00–2.180.51–2.680.25–4.86
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.475.098.56safe1.60–5.333.35–6.834.95–12.16safer1.11–5.822.88–7.304.00–13.12
Total shots
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6013.9724.57safe6.68–14.5310.41–17.5317.08–32.06safer5.59–15.629.45–18.4915.03–34.11
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction6.179.4815.65safe3.23–9.116.80–12.1610.03–21.28safer2.40–9.946.06–12.908.46–22.84
Blocked shots
24%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.954.377.32safe1.07–4.842.72–6.023.79–10.86safer0.53–5.382.22–6.512.75–11.89
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.925.089.00safe1.71–6.143.08–7.084.79–13.22safer1.13–6.712.55–7.623.68–14.32
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction45.3355.92safe38.54–52.1249.14–62.71safer36.87–53.7947.47–64.38
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction446550996safe379–513484–617862–1130safer361–531466–634827–1165
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction68.6978.33safe64.66–72.7274.01–82.65safer63.37–74.0172.70–83.96
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9611.4722.43safe8.13–13.808.52–14.4116.65–28.21safer7.37–14.567.78–15.1615.15–29.72
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.533.31safe0.62–2.940.44–2.621.06–5.57safer0.32–3.250.15–2.910.47–6.16
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.943.91safe0.92–3.020.81–3.071.73–6.09safer0.66–3.290.52–3.361.17–6.64
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
57%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.495.91safe1.98–4.850.94–4.052.92–8.90safer1.59–5.240.51–4.472.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 1.60 0.74–2.45 0.51–2.68 | 2.56 0.73–4.38 0.25–4.86 | 23% 25% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.47 1.60–5.33 1.11–5.82 | 5.09 3.35–6.83 2.88–7.30 | 8.56 4.95–12.16 4.00–13.12 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 10.60 6.68–14.53 5.59–15.62 | 13.97 10.41–17.53 9.45–18.49 | 24.57 17.08–32.06 15.03–34.11 | 22% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.17 3.23–9.11 2.40–9.94 | 9.48 6.80–12.16 6.06–12.90 | 15.65 10.03–21.28 8.46–22.84 | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.07–4.84 0.53–5.38 | 4.37 2.72–6.02 2.22–6.51 | 7.32 3.79–10.86 2.75–11.89 | 24% 13% 63% |
| Corners | 3.92 1.71–6.14 1.13–6.71 | 5.08 3.08–7.08 2.55–7.62 | 9.00 4.79–13.22 3.68–14.32 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 45.33 38.54–52.12 36.87–53.79 | 55.92 49.14–62.71 47.47–64.38 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 446 379–513 361–531 | 550 484–617 466–634 | 996 862–1130 827–1165 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.69 64.66–72.72 63.37–74.01 | 78.33 74.01–82.65 72.70–83.96 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.96 8.13–13.80 7.37–14.56 | 11.47 8.52–14.41 7.78–15.16 | 22.43 16.65–28.21 15.15–29.72 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.25 | 1.53 0.44–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 3.31 1.06–5.57 0.47–6.16 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 3.91 1.73–6.09 1.17–6.64 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.42 1.98–4.85 1.59–5.24 | 2.49 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.47 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 57% 16% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.