La Liga·Regular Season - 17·
La Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.142.91safe0.81–2.740.28–1.991.09–4.73safer0.55–2.990.05–2.220.61–5.21
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.799.50safe3.85–7.572.05–5.535.90–13.11safer3.36–8.061.58–6.004.94–14.06
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction17.1811.1628.34safe13.25–21.107.60–14.7220.85–35.82safer12.16–22.196.64–15.6818.80–37.87
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.327.4217.75safe7.38–13.274.74–10.1012.12–23.37safer6.55–14.104.00–10.8410.56–24.94
Blocked shots
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.017.56safe2.66–6.431.36–4.674.02–11.09safer2.12–6.970.87–5.162.99–12.13
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.164.4710.63safe3.95–8.382.47–6.476.42–14.85safer3.38–8.951.93–7.005.31–15.95
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.8746.91safe47.08–60.6640.12–53.69safer45.41–62.3338.45–55.36
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction494420913safe427–561353–486780–1047safer408–579336–504744–1083
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction69.4568.31safe65.42–73.4863.98–72.63safer64.13–74.7762.67–73.94
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8612.1724.03safe9.02–14.709.22–15.1118.24–29.81safer8.26–15.458.48–15.8616.74–31.31
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.693.64safe0.79–3.110.60–2.781.39–5.89safer0.49–3.410.31–3.070.80–6.48
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.063.89safe0.78–2.880.93–3.191.71–6.07safer0.51–3.140.64–3.481.15–6.62
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
24%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.796.33safe1.11–3.982.23–5.343.34–9.32safer0.72–4.371.81–5.772.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.81–2.74 0.55–2.99 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.91 1.09–4.73 0.61–5.21 | 52% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.57 3.36–8.06 | 3.79 2.05–5.53 1.58–6.00 | 9.50 5.90–13.11 4.94–14.06 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 17.18 13.25–21.10 12.16–22.19 | 11.16 7.60–14.72 6.64–15.68 | 28.34 20.85–35.82 18.80–37.87 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 10.32 7.38–13.27 6.55–14.10 | 7.42 4.74–10.10 4.00–10.84 | 17.75 12.12–23.37 10.56–24.94 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.66–6.43 2.12–6.97 | 3.01 1.36–4.67 0.87–5.16 | 7.56 4.02–11.09 2.99–12.13 | 65% 23% |
| Corners | 6.16 3.95–8.38 3.38–8.95 | 4.47 2.47–6.47 1.93–7.00 | 10.63 6.42–14.85 5.31–15.95 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 53.87 47.08–60.66 45.41–62.33 | 46.91 40.12–53.69 38.45–55.36 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 494 427–561 408–579 | 420 353–486 336–504 | 913 780–1047 744–1083 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.45 65.42–73.48 64.13–74.77 | 68.31 63.98–72.63 62.67–73.94 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 11.86 9.02–14.70 8.26–15.45 | 12.17 9.22–15.11 8.48–15.86 | 24.03 18.24–29.81 16.74–31.31 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 1.69 0.60–2.78 0.31–3.07 | 3.64 1.39–5.89 0.80–6.48 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.89 1.71–6.07 1.15–6.62 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 3.79 2.23–5.34 1.81–5.77 | 6.33 3.34–9.32 2.53–10.14 | 24% 14% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.