La Liga·Regular Season - 17·
La Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.780.982.76safe0.81–2.740.13–1.840.94–4.58safer0.56–3.000.00–2.070.46–5.06
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.193.078.26safe3.33–7.061.32–4.814.65–11.86safer2.84–7.550.86–5.273.70–12.82
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction16.858.5625.41safe12.92–20.775.00–12.1217.92–32.90safer11.83–21.864.04–13.0815.87–34.95
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction9.875.3415.21safe6.93–12.822.66–8.029.59–20.84safer6.10–13.641.92–8.768.02–22.40
Blocked shots
74%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.081.986.06safe2.20–5.960.33–3.642.53–9.60safer1.65–6.510.00–4.131.49–10.63
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.853.569.41safe3.64–8.061.56–5.565.20–13.62safer3.06–8.641.03–6.094.09–14.73
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.3449.28safe43.55–57.1342.50–56.07safer41.88–58.8040.83–57.74
Passes
55%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction444427871safe377–511361–494737–1005safer359–529343–511702–1040
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction67.9369.22safe63.90–71.9664.90–73.55safer62.61–73.2563.59–74.86
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8513.7426.59safe10.01–15.6810.80–16.6920.81–32.37safer9.25–16.4410.05–17.4419.30–33.88
Offsides
58%
18%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.781.834.61safe1.62–3.940.73–2.922.36–6.86safer1.32–4.250.45–3.211.77–7.45
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.564.31safe0.70–2.801.43–3.692.13–6.49safer0.44–3.071.14–3.981.58–7.05
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.82
GK saves
21%
15%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.063.465.52safe0.63–3.501.90–5.022.53–8.52safer0.24–3.891.48–5.441.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.81–2.74 0.56–3.00 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.33–7.06 2.84–7.55 | 3.07 1.32–4.81 0.86–5.27 | 8.26 4.65–11.86 3.70–12.82 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 16.85 12.92–20.77 11.83–21.86 | 8.56 5.00–12.12 4.04–13.08 | 25.41 17.92–32.90 15.87–34.95 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 9.87 6.93–12.82 6.10–13.64 | 5.34 2.66–8.02 1.92–8.76 | 15.21 9.59–20.84 8.02–22.40 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 2.20–5.96 1.65–6.51 | 1.98 0.33–3.64 0.00–4.13 | 6.06 2.53–9.60 1.49–10.63 | 74% 14% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.06 3.06–8.64 | 3.56 1.56–5.56 1.03–6.09 | 9.41 5.20–13.62 4.09–14.73 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 50.34 43.55–57.13 41.88–58.80 | 49.28 42.50–56.07 40.83–57.74 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 444 377–511 359–529 | 427 361–494 343–511 | 871 737–1005 702–1040 | 55% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.93 63.90–71.96 62.61–73.25 | 69.22 64.90–73.55 63.59–74.86 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.85 10.01–15.68 9.25–16.44 | 13.74 10.80–16.69 10.05–17.44 | 26.59 20.81–32.37 19.30–33.88 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.78 1.62–3.94 1.32–4.25 | 1.83 0.73–2.92 0.45–3.21 | 4.61 2.36–6.86 1.77–7.45 | 58% 18% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 4.31 2.13–6.49 1.58–7.05 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.06 0.63–3.50 0.24–3.89 | 3.46 1.90–5.02 1.48–5.44 | 5.52 2.53–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 21% 15% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.