Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.432.52safe0.12–2.060.58–2.290.70–4.34safer0.00–2.310.35–2.520.22–4.82
Shots on target
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.804.288.08safe1.94–5.662.54–6.024.48–11.69safer1.45–6.152.07–6.493.52–12.64
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2613.3825.64safe8.34–16.199.82–16.9418.15–33.13safer7.25–17.288.86–17.9016.10–35.18
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction7.389.0016.38safe4.44–10.326.32–11.6810.75–22.00safer3.61–11.155.58–12.429.19–23.57
Blocked shots
39%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.734.027.75safe1.84–5.612.37–5.674.21–11.28safer1.30–6.151.87–6.163.18–12.32
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.784.759.53safe2.57–7.002.75–6.755.32–13.74safer2.00–7.572.21–7.284.21–14.85
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction52.2349.37safe45.44–59.0242.59–56.16safer43.77–60.6940.92–57.83
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction436402839safe369–504336–469705–972safer351–522319–486669–1008
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction66.2469.91safe62.21–70.2765.59–74.23safer60.92–71.5664.28–75.54
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4313.5725.00safe8.60–14.2710.62–16.5119.22–30.78safer7.84–15.039.88–17.2617.71–32.29
Offsides
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.263.76safe0.34–2.661.17–3.361.51–6.01safer0.03–2.960.88–3.640.92–6.60
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.063.99safe0.88–2.970.93–3.191.81–6.16safer0.61–3.240.64–3.481.25–6.72
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.805.65safe1.41–4.291.25–4.362.66–8.64safer1.03–4.670.82–4.781.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.12–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 2.52 0.70–4.34 0.22–4.82 | 29% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.94–5.66 1.45–6.15 | 4.28 2.54–6.02 2.07–6.49 | 8.08 4.48–11.69 3.52–12.64 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.26 8.34–16.19 7.25–17.28 | 13.38 9.82–16.94 8.86–17.90 | 25.64 18.15–33.13 16.10–35.18 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.38 4.44–10.32 3.61–11.15 | 9.00 6.32–11.68 5.58–12.42 | 16.38 10.75–22.00 9.19–23.57 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.84–5.61 1.30–6.15 | 4.02 2.37–5.67 1.87–6.16 | 7.75 4.21–11.28 3.18–12.32 | 39% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.57–7.00 2.00–7.57 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.21–7.28 | 9.53 5.32–13.74 4.21–14.85 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 52.23 45.44–59.02 43.77–60.69 | 49.37 42.59–56.16 40.92–57.83 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 436 369–504 351–522 | 402 336–469 319–486 | 839 705–972 669–1008 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.24 62.21–70.27 60.92–71.56 | 69.91 65.59–74.23 64.28–75.54 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.43 8.60–14.27 7.84–15.03 | 13.57 10.62–16.51 9.88–17.26 | 25.00 19.22–30.78 17.71–32.29 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.03–2.96 | 2.26 1.17–3.36 0.88–3.64 | 3.76 1.51–6.01 0.92–6.60 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.99 1.81–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.41–4.29 1.03–4.67 | 2.80 1.25–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.85–9.46 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.